Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Miniseries or TV Movie

We're a little more than a week away from the 64th Primetime Emmy Awards, which will honor television programming that aired from June 1, 2011, to May 31, 2012. The Emmys themselves will be handed out on Sunday, September 23. In the week leading up to that ceremony (which will air on ABC), we here at TVRage will be providing you with rundowns of all the major categories. Who's nominated? Who should win? Who will win? We've got all your answers here, though of course we don't make any promises that we're correct. 

I've always had a bit of a problem with the merits of award ceremonies, but it's still an interesting exercise to look at where accolades are deserved and where they are given. Let's start our weeklong Emmy predictions with a look at one of the more -- shall we say fluctuating? -- categories: Outstanding Miniseries or TV Movie. 

The nominees are: 

  • American Horror Story (FX)
  • Game Change (HBO)
  • Hatfields & McCoys (History)
  • Hemingway & Gellhorn (HBO)
  • Luther (BBC America)
  • Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia (PBS)

First off, let's look at last year's winner, the first season of PBS's Downton Abbey. The series, which was nominated for this category before the show's renewal for a second season, is now contending for the Best Drama Series category. 

This year, there's more than one series whose nomination in this category is questionable. There's American Horror Story, an FX anthology series that really straddles the line of 'miniseries.' It technically isn't a miniseries, but the argument for its placement in this category can be made strongly enough. Having said that, the series veered between entrancing and horrid, and not in the way that it hoped. It's the biggest name in the category for American audiences, but it doesn't deserve to win. 

Neither does Hemingway & Gellhorn or Hatfields & McCoys, two ampersand-bearing shows from HBO and History Channel, respectively. Hemingway & Gellhorn was solid, but forgettable, while Hatfields & McCoys featured some great acting, but the writing was a bit of a mess. HBO's pedigree might make Hemingway & Gellhorn a frontrunner, but I'd say the more likely contender from the network is Game Change, a solid HBO movie about the 2008 presidential campaign. It's probably the buzziest nominee, and holds a solid chance of winning thanks to the fantastic performances and the timeliness of its subject matter. 

But the two that deserve to win are shows that, like American Horror Story, don't necessarily belong. The second series of the BBC's Luther is somehow nominated as a miniseries, while the first episode of Sherlock's second series, "A Scandal in Belgravia," is nominated on its own as a TV movie. As this has become the "it is what we say it is" category, there's no use debating the placement of these shows. Having said that, both Luther and Sherlock are fantastic series, undoubtedly the best of the bunch.

Given that the Downton Abbey took home the award for PBS last year, the odds are with Sherlock. Luther is a fantastic series, however, and I can't say I'd complain if it took home the trophy, though that really is a long shot. 

So, the verdict is: 

WHO SHOULD WIN: 'Sherlock' or 'Luther'

WHO WILL WIN: 'Sherlock' or 'Game Change'

What do you think? Am I right? Am I wrong? Let me know in the comments section below, and keep tuning back into TVRage this week for more Emmys predictions. 

- American Horror Story
- Game Change
- Luther
- Sherlock
- The Emmy Awards
- Hatfields & McCoys

Written by: mcpherson
Sep 15th, 2012, 2:56 pm