Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

The 64th Primetime Emmy Awards will air this Sunday, September 23, on ABC, and in the week leading up to the ceremony, we here at TVRage are bringing you our predictions on who will be the night's big winners. You can check out all of our Emmy predictions and news here. After knocking out all of the supporting actor/actress categories (as well as the Outstanding Miniseries/TV Movie category), we're moving on to the leading acting roles. Tonight, we're tackling the Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series Award. Here are the nominees: 

  • Alec Baldwin as Jack Donaghy on 30 Rock (Episode: "Live from Studio 6H") (NBC)
  • Louis C.K. as Louie on Louie (Episode: "Duckling") (FX)
  • Don Cheadle as Marty Kaan on House of Lies (Episode: "Gods of Dangerous Financial Institutions") (Showtime)
  • Jon Cryer as Dr. Alan Harper on Two and a Half Men (Episode: "Frodo's Headshots") (CBS)
  • Larry David as Himself on Curb Your Enthusiasm (Episode: "Palestinian Chicken") (HBO)
  • Jim Parsons as Dr. Sheldon Cooper on The Big Bang Theory (Episode: "The Werewolf Transformation") (CBS)

Let's get right down to it, shall we? We'll start with Alec Baldwin, the category's once-golden boy whose chances of winning have diminished with the overall quality of his series. Baldwin's best chances will be in next year's Emmys, after 30 Rock has completed its seventh and final season. For now, though, it's probably easiest to write Baldwin off as an also-ran. 

The same goes for Jon Cryer of Two and a Half Men, a show which pushes the boundaries of just how middle-of-the-line a sitcom can be. Interestingly, it's Cryer's first time in the category; he'd previously been nominated many times (and won once) in the Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Award. His graduation to this category, though, seems more than anything like the Emmys filling the Charlie Sheen gap. Cryer's chances aren't great. 

Neither are Larry David's, who has been nominated many times but never won. Seeing as this season of Curb Your Enthusiasm wasn't nearly as lauded as the previous season, David's probably not a major contender for the category. 

Don Cheadle is the new guy of the bunch, and his role in Showtime's House of Lies is undeniably funny. Cheadle's a great actor, but it's really hard to see the lead of such a small series nabbing a win. His big name might work to his advantage, but even that seems unlikely. Fans will just have to settle for him being nominated, and hope that House of Lies season 2 is funny enough to merit a second nomination for him. 

Really, Jim Parsons is the one to beat in this category. The Big Bang Theory star has won for the past two years, and another win would make him the first since Michael J. Fox to win the award three consecutive times. Having said that, I've never seen the appeal of Parsons simply acting quirky. There's no real depth to his performance, and it'd be nice if the Emmys moved on and recognized someone else. 

The only truly deserving actor of the bunch is Louis C.K. It's a tragedy that this is the only major category in which his series, FX's Louie, has been nominated. The critically acclaimed series undoubtedly deserved a slot -- hell, a win -- in the Outstanding Comedy category. But the Emmys have instead decided to recognize the show's auteur, C.K., for his acting in the series. And really, he deserves it, just as he deserved it when he was nominated but lost last year. As Louie, C.K. is truly empathetic, delivering strained attempts at conversation that are just as riveting and revealing as his character's impassioned monologues. That's not to mention the fact that the episode for which he's nominated, "Duckling," is one of the show's best. There's really no question in my mind that C.K. should take home the statuette, but it's all too likely that he'll end up losing out to Parsons once again. 

WHO SHOULD WIN: Louis C.K., Louie

WHO WILL WIN: Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

What do you think? Will it be Louis, Jim, or someone else in the category? Do you think I'm barking up the wrong tree? Let me know in the comments section below, and stay tuned for more Emmys predictions here at TVRage. 

- The Emmy Awards
- Louis C.K.

Written by: mcpherson
Sep 20th, 2012, 9:36 pm

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