Tonight's episode of The Walking Dead promies to be the bloodiest episode of the series thus far. The conflict between the survivors at the prison and Woodbury comes to a head tonight -- a violent final battle is certain, and so are heavy losses. If less than five major characters die, I'm going to be very surprised (and a little disappointed, honestly). This is the episode for which we've been waiting all season -- and all signs point to it being as disturbingly violent as we hope and expect.
But which characters will survive? We've decided to analyze the chances of every major character of making it out of season 3 alive. Do our guesses match up with yours? Let us know in the comments section, and tune into The Walking Dead at 9/8c on AMC (or at 11:05/10:05c for Game of Thrones fans).
Daryl Dixon - Chance of surviving: 100% - The Walking Dead tries to convince us that there are no "safe" characters on the series, but Daryl Dixon certainly is one of the few that is. With last week's major character development following the death of his brother -- not to mention the massive fan following the character has -- Daryl and his crossbow will undoubtedly be around for season 4.
Carl Grimes - Chance of surviving: 100% - Just as Daryl certainly won't be killed off, Carl won't be either. Producers have often commented on how The Walking Dead's focus is really on Carl's humanity over the course of the series. Ending his story here, as part of a huge bloodbath, seems to go against one of the show's biggest overarching themes.
Glenn Rhee - Chance of surviving: 50% - Glenn seemed safe until last week's proposal to Maggie, which dropped his chances of survival quite drastically. The placement of this engagment seems to indicate that only one of the pair will survive, leaving the other devastated. Which one will make it? That's anyone's guess.
Maggie Greene - Chance of surviving: 50% - While I think Maggie is a stronger character than Glenn, she's got just as much of a chance of dying as he does. Their romance is not something The Walking Dead will allow to have a happy ending.
Caesar Martinez - Chance of surviving: 0% - The Governor's chief enforcer is too despicable and too expendable not to be one of this episode's massive body count. Nobody is really interested in keeping him around.
Michonne - Chance of surviving: 90% - Though it's possible the Governor will get his revenge for the "death" of his re-animated daughter, it seems much more likely that Michonne will live to fight another day. She was just introduced, after all, and it looks like there's much more story about her to tell.
Hershel Greene - Chance of surviving: 10% - I like Hershel, but the fact that he's old and only has one leg doesn't exactly make him a prime candidate for survival. I'd be pleasantly surprised if he made it out alive, but I just can't see it happening.
Carol Peletier - Chance of surviving: 50% - Carol's character arc has been called into focus by the series multiple times recently. What else is left for her character to do? Having said that, she's become a fantastically strong character, and she's one of the more interesting ones that the series should keep around.
Tyreese - Chance of surviving: 90% - Fans of the comic know that Tyreese is a major character in the comics, but he hasn't been given too much to do since his introduction this season. He'll almost definitely survive this season finale -- otherwise, why introduce him at all?
Sasha - Chance of surviving: 40% - Everybody loses in this season finale, and Sasha definitely doesn't seem like she'll be a winner here. As a relatively minor character, her death would have a small, but notable impact. At the same time, it'd be really interesting to see how her character develops if she survives.
Milton Mamet - Chance of surviving: 20% - News that actor Dallas Roberts has signed to another series makes Milton's fate look worse than it already did: and really, it looked pretty bleak to begin with. If he does survive, he would be the ideal replacement for Hershel as the group's doctor. But his link to the Governor (and opposition with him) seems to indicate that he'll be biting the dust.
Andrea - Chance of surviving: 70% - Sure, we left Andrea in a really rough spot at the end of "Prey." As the Governor's torture-prisoner, she's probably going to have a rough time. But money says that she survives, simply because the show seems to enjoy her so much (for no reason that I can tell).
Judith Grimes - Chance of surviving: 10% - A baby in a massive prison gunfight? You can bet she'll die, if only for the story convenience of season 4.
Beth Greene - Chance of surviving: 50% - Here's the thing about Beth: no one really remembers that she's there. She's been given so little to do in the third season (beyond sing Tom Waits covers) that I bet the show doesn't really care if she lives or dies. She could survive for no discernible reason (a la the season 2 finale) or she could be killed off for no discernible reason (a la T-Dog). There's no predicting this one.
Rick Grimes - Chance of surviving: 95% - Let's be honest here: The Walking Dead isn't going to kill Rick. At least, not yet. He's the main character, and though The Walking Dead likes to pride itself on being unpredictable, it's not going to be brave enough to kill its main character yet. They'll keep him around for a while yet.
The Governor - Chance of surviving: 0% - As this season's big bad guy, the Governor is certainly going to bite the dust this episode. The only real question is, who will do it? It probably won't be Rick, but it could very easily be Andrea. The fact that Woodbury survivor Karen is credited in this episode seems to indicate that the series might follow the comics and have the Governor killed by a minor female character from his own camp, but I'd much rather it be Milton who pulls the trigger. It'd be a fitting end to the story of a man who has watched his former friend descend into violent madness. Who do you think will eventually off the Governor?