With its usual line-up back, CBS won Thursday in all measures.
Despite the win, 'The Big Bang Theory' dropped two tenths to a season low of 4.5. To be fair, most shows would kill for that number on their best day. 'The Millers' dipped a tenth to a 2.4. Conversely, lead-out 'Two and a Half Men' rose a tenth to a 2.5.
The series premiere of 'Bad Teacher' earned a decent, if not great 2.1. That tops the last few episodes of 'The Crazy Ones,' but is also just above what the quickly canceled 'We Are Men' debuted to back in the Fall. 'Elementary' matched its last new episode's 1.6.
FOX's 'Hell's Kitchen' matched last week's 1.7. 'American Idol' dipped a tenth, returning to its previous all-time low of 1.8. 'Surviving Jack' matched last week's series low of 1.0, and has quickly sealed its fate after a promising first two weeks.
Over on ABC, 'Grey's Anatomy' tumbled down three tenths to a 2.3, its previous series low. The series premiere of critically maligned new drama 'Black Box' earned a worrying 1.5. While 1.5 isn't quite an instant death sentence for a 10 p.m. show, it's hardly a good starting point.
The double length season finale of 'Parks & Recreation' bumped up a tenth to a 1.0 for NBC. An 'SNL' digital shorts special also posted a 1.0. The CW finally broke the 0.7 barrier again, with 'The Vampire Diaries' bumping up a tenth to a 0.8, and 'Reign' rising a smidge to a 0.5.
Oh, one more thing. With us being less than a month out from the network upfronts, I'm going to be changing most of my "likely" renewals or cancellations to "guaranteed" ones soon. To that end, one FOX show has been downgraded below.
Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions
CBS - The Big Bang Theory (N) - 4.5 - 16 - 16.44
FOX - Hell's Kitchen (N) - 1.7 - 6 - 4.92
NBC - Parks & Recreation (Season Finale) - 1.0 - 3 - 2.71
CW - The Vampire Diaries (N) - 0.8 - 3 - 1.81
ABC - Jimmy Kimmel Live (R) - 0.6 - 2 - 2.79
CBS - The Millers (N) - 2.4 - 8 - 9.96
CBS - Two and a Half Men (N) - 2.5 - 8 - 9.35
ABC - Grey's Anatomy (N) - 2.3 - 7 - 7.99
FOX - American Idol (N) - 1.8 - 5 - 7.68
NBC - Saturday Night Live: Best of Digital Shorts (N) - 1.0 - 3 - 2.47
CW - Reign (N) - 0.5 - 1 - 1.35
CBS - Bad Teacher (Series Premiere) - 2.1 - 6 - 7.80
FOX - Surviving Jack (N) - 1.0 - 3 - 3.89
CBS - Elementary (N) - 1.6 - 5 - 8.13
ABC - Black Box (Series Premiere) - 1.5 - 4 - 6.87
Source: Nielsen Media Research
The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:
1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)
2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)
3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)
4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)
5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)
Newly updated predictions are in bold.
Once Upon a Time in Wonderland - Guaranteed Cancellation Canceled 3/28/14 *Correct Prediction
Grey's Anatomy - Guaranteed Renewal
Scandal - Guaranteed Renewal
Black Box - Too Soon to Tell
The Big Bang Theory - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/12/14 *Correct Prediction
The Millers - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
Two and a Half Men - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
The Crazy Ones - Guaranteed Cancellation
Bad Teacher - Too Soon To Tell
Elementary - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
The Vampire Diaries - Already Renewed
Reign - Already Renewed
Surviving Jack - Guaranteed Cancellation
Community - Guaranteed Renewal
Parks and Recreation - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/19/14 *Correct Prediction
Parenthood - Guaranteed Renewal
Shows correctly predicted - 22
ABC - Mind Games (C), Once Upon a Time in Wonderland (C)
CBS - 2 Broke Girls (R), The Big Bang Theory (R), Blue Bloods (R), Criminal Minds (R), CSI (R) Elementary (R), The Good Wife (R), Hawaii Five-0 (R), The Millers (R), NCIS (R) NCIS: Los Angeles (R), Person of Interest (R), Two and a Half Men (R)
FOX - Brooklyn Nine-Nine (R), New Girl (R), Raising Hope (C)
NBC - Chicago Fire (R), Chicago P.D. (R), Grimm (R), Parks and Recreation (R)
Shows incorrectly predicted - 3 - The Following (R), The Mindy Project (R), Mom (R)
Current accuracy rate: 88%
Shows that were renewed or canceled prior to 'Primetime Prognostication's debut - 21
ABC - The Assets (C), Back in the Game (C), Killer Women (C), Lucky 7 (C)
CBS - Unforgettable (R), We Are Men (C)
CW - Arrow (R), The Originals (R), Reign (R), Supernatural (R), The Vampire Diaries (R)
FOX - American Dad (C by FOX, R by TBS), Bob's Burgers (R), Bones (R), Glee (R), Sleepy Hollow (R), The Simpsons (R)
NBC - The Blacklist (R), Ironside (C), The Michael J. Fox Show (C), Sean Saves the World (C), Welcome to the Family (C)