Primetime Ratings, Monday, 3/24/14

NBC held on to its usual Monday demo crown, while ABC drew the most total viewers.

'The Voice' continued its recent yo-yo pattern, falling four tenths to a 3.7, after just rising four tenths last week. Despite the drop, the veteran reality series still won the night in the 18-49 demo. Lead-out 'The Blacklist' rose one tenth to a 2.8.

'Dancing with the Stars' took a big tumble of its own for ABC, falling three tenths to a 2.3. 'Castle' held up well regardless, matching last week's 1.8. 'How I Met Your Mother's penultimate half-hour shot up six tenths to a 3.5, earning the night's best scripted demos.

'2 Broke Girls' kept the CBS rises coming, bumping up a tenth to a 2.3. 'Mike & Molly' increased by two tenths, posting a 2.0. 'Mom' rose a single tenth to a 1.9. 'Intelligence' matched last week's 1.1, and remains a lock to meet the ax.

Fox had a blah night, with 'Bones' and 'The Following' both matching last week's 1.4s. On the plus side, at least the latter didn't set another all-time low. The CW's apparent Monday curse continues, with 'Star-Crossed' matching last week's 0.3, and 'The Tomorrow People' falling to a 0.3. 'TTP' is rapidly entering 'Beauty and the Beast' territory, and has failed to earn a stay of execution on Mondays.

Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions

8PM

NBC - The Voice (N) - 3.7 - 10 - 12.85

CBS - How I Met Your Mother (N) - 3.5 - 11 - 9.04

ABC - Dancing with the Stars (N) - 2.3 - 6 - 14.65

FOX - Bones (N) - 1.4 - 4 - 5.82

CW - Star-Crossed (N) - 0.3 - 1 - 0.88

8:30PM

CBS - 2 Broke Girls (N) - 2.3 - 7 - 7.40

9PM

CBS - Mike & Molly (N) - 2.0 - 6 - 7.83

FOX - The Following (N) - 1.4 - 4 - 4.07

CW - The Tomorrow People (N) - 0.3 - 1 - 0.78

9:30PM

CBS - Mom (N) - 1.9 - 5 - 7.35

10PM

NBC - The Blacklist (N) - 2.8 - 8 - 10.80

ABC - Castle (N) - 1.8 - 5 - 9.78

CBS - Intelligence (N) - 1.1 - 3 - 4.99

Source: Nielsen Media Research

PRIMETIME PROGNOSTICATION

The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:

1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)

2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)

3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)

4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)

5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)

Newly updated predictions are in bold.

Castle - Likely Renewal

How I Met Your Mother - Final Season

2 Broke Girls - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

Mike & Molly - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

Mom - Likely Cancellation Renewed 3/13/14 *Incorrect Prediction

Intelligence - Guaranteed Cancellation

Star-Crossed - Guaranteed Cancellation

Beauty and the Beast - Guaranteed Cancellation

The Tomorrow People - Guaranteed Cancellation

Bones - Already Renewed

Almost Human - Likely Cancellation

The Following - Likely Cancellation Renewed 3/7/14 *Incorrect Prediction

The Blacklist - Already Renewed

Prediction Stats

Shows correctly predicted (so far) - 20
CBS - 2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Blue Bloods, Criminal Minds, CSI, Elementary, The Good Wife, Hawaii Five-0, The Millers, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, Person of Interest, Two and a Half Men
FOX - Brooklyn Nine-Nine, New Girl, Raising Hope
NBC - Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., Grimm, Parks and Recreation

Shows incorrectly predicted (so far) - 3 - The Following, The Mindy Project, Mom

Current accuracy rate: 87%