Primetime Ratings, Thursday, 4/17/14

 

 

ABC got the 18-49 demo victory, while CBS drew the most total viewers.

'Grey's Anatomy' began ABC's night by matching last week's 2.6. All in all, the ratings for 'Grey's this season have been incredibly consistent, illustrating exactly why the veteran medical drama isn't going away anytime soon. The season finale of 'Scandal' shot up four tenths to a 3.4, ending the drama's highest rated season yet on a high note.

With 'Big Bang' in reruns this week, FOX's 'Hell's Kitchen jumped up three tenths to a 1.7. However, lead-out 'American Idol' failed to impress, rising only a single tenth to a 1.9, and coming dangerously close to matching last week's all-time low of 1.8. After two encouraging weeks, 'Surviving Jack' fell two tenths to a 1.0. If it doesn't rise back up to at least a 1.1 next week, I'm downgrading its prediction.

CBS' only new offerings were the final two episodes of freshman comedy 'The Crazy Ones,' and sadly, these last two numbers have sealed the show's fate. Episode one at 9 p.m. dipped a tenth to a new series low of 1.6, then episode two really bottomed out, falling to an even lower low of 1.3. Stick a fork in these 'Ones,' they're done.

The fifth season finale of NBC's 'Community' rose one tenth to a 1.0. Whether that will be enough to save it is still unclear, but my personal prediction remains that 'Community' fans will get their sixth season, if not their movie. 'Parks & Recreation, dipped a tenth to a new series low of 0.9. 'Hollywood Game Night' also set a new low of 0.9. The season finale of 'Parenthood' rose two tenths to a 1.3.

As for The CW, 'The Vampire Diaries' fell to a new all-time low of 0.7. Lead-out 'Reign' matched last week's series low of 0.4. This continues a horrifically bad week for the network, which hasn't seen one show earn better than a 0.7 rating.

Oh, one more thing. With us being less than a month out from the network upfronts, I'm going to be changing most of my "likely" renewals or cancellations to "guaranteed" ones soon. To that end, one CBS show has been downgraded, and two NBC shows have been upgraded below.

Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions

8PM

CBS - The Big Bang Theory (R) - 2.2 - 8 - 9.69

FOX - Hell's Kitchen (N) - 1.7 - 6 - 4.95

NBC - Community (Season Finale) - 1.0 - 4 - 2.87

ABC - Grey's Anatomy (R) - 0.9 - 3 - 3.59

CW -  The Vampire Diaries (N) - 0.7 - 3 - 1.66

8:30PM

CBS - The Big Bang Theory (R) - 2.7 - 9 - 10.91

NBC - Parks & Recreation (N) - 0.9 - 3 - 2.39

9PM

ABC - Grey's Anatomy (N) - 2.6 - 8 - 8.45

FOX - American Idol (N) - 1.9 - 6 - 7.97

CBS - The Crazy Ones (N) - 1.6 - 5 - 6.19

NBC - Hollywood Game Night (N) - 0.9 - 3 - 3.21

CW - Reign (N) - 0.4 - 1 - 1.39

9:30PM

CBS - The Crazy Ones (Season Finale) - 1.3 - 4 - 5.23

FOX - Surviving Jack (N) - 1.0 - 3 - 4.29

10PM

ABC - Scandal (Season Finale) - 3.4 - 11 - 10.57

NBC - Parenthood (Season Finale) - 1.3 - 4 - 3.99

CBS - NCIS (R) - 1.0 - 3 - 6.13

Source: Nielsen Media Research

PRIMETIME PROGNOSTICATION

The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:

1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)

2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)

3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)

4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)

5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)

Newly updated predictions are in bold.

Once Upon a Time in Wonderland - Guaranteed Cancellation Canceled 3/28/14 *Correct Prediction

Grey's Anatomy - Guaranteed Renewal

Scandal - Guaranteed Renewal

The Big Bang Theory - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/12/14 *Correct Prediction

The Millers - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

Two and a Half Men - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

The Crazy Ones - Guaranteed Cancellation

Elementary - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

The Vampire Diaries - Already Renewed

Reign - Already Renewed

Surviving Jack - Likely Renewal

Community - Guaranteed Renewal

Parks and Recreation - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/19/14 *Correct Prediction

Parenthood - Guaranteed Renewal

Prediction Stats

Shows correctly predicted (so far) - 22
ABC - Mind Games, Once Upon a Time in Wonderland
CBS - 2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Blue Bloods, Criminal Minds, CSI, Elementary, The Good Wife, Hawaii Five-0, The Millers, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, Person of Interest, Two and a Half Men
FOX - Brooklyn Nine-Nine, New Girl, Raising Hope
NBC - Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., Grimm, Parks and Recreation

Shows incorrectly predicted (so far) - 3 - The Following, The Mindy Project, Mom

Current accuracy rate: 88%