FOX won Wednesday in the 18-49 demo, while CBS drew more total viewers.
'American Idol' fell three tenths to a 2.4, actually losing the 8 p.m. hour to 'Survivor' for the first time in many, many months. Speaking of 'Survivor,' it rose a tenth to a 2.5. That didn't help 'Criminal Minds' though, which yo-yoed down three tenths to a 2.3. 'CSI' continued its own yo-yo pattern, gaining back the three tenths it lost last week, and posting a 2.0.
*Update: After I finished my initial afternoon draft of this post (based on the fast national numbers), CBS saw fit to announce the mass renewal of 18 shows, including 'Criminal Minds' and 'CSI.'
ABC had a mixed night, with veteran comedy 'The Middle' (which rose a tenth to a 2.0) the network's only program to move in a positive direction. 'Suburgatory' dropped one tenth, earning a 1.6. None of 'Suburgatory's ratings this season have been that great, but it's still doing just well enough to to squeak out another renewal.
'Modern Family' came in even with last week's 3.4. 'Mixology' fell two tenths to a 1.5, and is doing a terrible job holding on to 'Family's massive lead-in audience. 'Nashville' dropped a tenth to a 1.4. 'Revolution' matched its series low of 1.3 for the fourth straight week.
'Law & Order: SVU' matched last week's 1.6. Somewhat worryingly, 'Chicago P.D.' recovered terribly from last week's monster seven tenths drop, rising only one tenth to a 1.6. If it doesn't rise next week, it's getting downgraded.
Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions
CBS - Survivor (N) - 2.5 - 8 - 9.66
FOX - American Idol (N) - 2.4 - 7 - 10.27
ABC - The Middle (N) - 2.0 - 7 - 7.48
NBC - Revolution (N) - 1.3 - 4 - 4.63
CW - Arrow (R) - 0.3 - 1 - 1.11
ABC - Suburgatory (N) - 1.6 - 5 - 5.39
ABC - Modern Family (N) - 3.4 - 10 - 9.39
CBS - Criminal Minds (N) - 2.3 - 7 - 10.74
NBC - Law & Order: SVU (N) - 1.6 - 5 - 6.28
CW - The Tomorrow People (R) - 0.2 - 1 - 0.69
ABC - Mixology (N) - 1.5 - 4 - 4.29
CBS - CSI (N) - 2.0 - 6 - 10.15
NBC - Chicago P.D. (N) - 1.6 - 5 - 5.84
ABC - Nashville (N) - 1.4 - 4 - 5.07
Source: Nielsen Media Research
The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:
1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)
2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)
3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)
4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)
5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)
Newly updated predictions are in bold.
The Middle - Likely Renewal
Suburgatory - Likely Renewal
Modern Family - Guaranteed Renewal
Mixology - Likely Cancellation
Nashville - Likely Cancellation
Criminal Minds - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
CSI - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
Arrow - Already Renewed
The Tomorrow People - Guaranteed Cancellation
No Scripted Programming Available
Revolution - Guaranteed Cancellation
Law & Order: SVU - Guaranteed Renewal
Chicago P.D. - Guaranteed Renewal