Primetime Ratings, Thursday, 4/10/14

CBS and ABC split the Thursday victory.

In a mild shocker, 'The Big Bang Theory' dropped two tenths to a 4.7, setting a new season low for the most popular comedy on television. 'The Millers' followed that by dipping three tenths to a 2.5. 'Two and a Half Men' dipped a tenth as well, posting a 2.4. 'The Crazy Ones' once again matched the 1.7 it's been earning for weeks, but its lack of improvement has likely sealed its doom. 'Elementary' was the Eye's only offering to rise, bumping up one tenth to a 1.6.

A special Thurday airing of 'Shark Tank' earned a 1.7 for ABC, way up from the 0.9 'Once Upon a Time in Wonderland's finale earned last week in the same slot. Still, last Friday's 'Tank' scored a 2.0, making it the rare series that might be better off at the end of the week. 'Grey's Anatomy' fell one tenth to a 2.6, although it still topped 9 p.m. 'Scandal' rose a tenth to a 3.0.

Over on FOX, 'Hell's Kitchen' plunged four tenths to a season low of 1.4. 'American Idol' rose one tenth from last Thursday's all-time low, garnering a 1.8. 'Surviving Jack' matched last week's 1.2, and has fallen only one tenth since its premiere. As such, it's getting upgraded to a likely renewal. If 'Mindy' can get renewed while posting 1.2s (or worse), so can 'Jack.'

In a worrying sign for 'Community' fans, the cult comedy' matched last week's series low of 0.9. I still think 'Community' will get renewed, if only because of the gigantic amounts of fan backlash that would occur if NBC cut the show off right before the long demanded "six seasons and a movie." That said, a renewal at this point will come by the skin of 'Community's teeth.

Already renewed comedy 'Parks and Recreation' dropped a tenth to a 1.0. 'Parenthood' also shed a single tenth, matching its previous series low of 1.1. Finally, 'Reign' fell two tenths to a new series low of 0.4. I was perplexed when The CW renewed this a few months back, and I remain perplexed now. Surely the network had to know that a show doing 0.6s was only going to fall further?

Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions

8PM

CBS - The Big Bang Theory (N) - 4.7 - 17 - 16.29

ABC - Shark Tank (N) - 1.7 - 6 - 6.85

FOX - Hell's Kitchen (N) - 1.4 - 5 - 4.17

NBC - Community (N) - 0.9 - 3 - 2.56

CW -  The Vampire Diaries (R) - 0.3 - 1 - 0.84

8:30PM

CBS - The Millers (N) - 2.5 - 9 - 10.07

NBC - Parks & Recreation (N) - 1.0 - 3 - 2.56

9PM

ABC - Grey's Anatomy (N) - 2.6 - 8 - 8.18

CBS - Two and a Half Men (N) - 2.4 - 8 - 9.55

FOX - American Idol (N) - 1.8 - 5 - 7.63

NBC - Hollywood Game Night (R) - 0.9 - 3 - 2.62

CW - Reign (N) - 0.4 - 1 - 1.23

9:30PM

CBS - The Crazy Ones (N) - 1.7 - 5 - 6.87

FOX - Surviving Jack (N) - 1.2 - 4 - 4.32

10PM

ABC - Scandal (N) - 3.0 - 9 - 9.23

CBS - Elementary (N) - 1.6 - 5 - 7.90

NBC - Parenthood (N) - 1.1 - 3 - 3.66

Source: Nielsen Media Research

PRIMETIME PROGNOSTICATION

The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:

1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)

2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)

3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)

4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)

5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)

Newly updated predictions are in bold.

Once Upon a Time in Wonderland - Guaranteed Cancellation Canceled 3/28/14 *Correct Prediction

Grey's Anatomy - Guaranteed Renewal

Scandal - Guaranteed Renewal

The Big Bang Theory - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/12/14 *Correct Prediction

The Millers - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

Two and a Half Men - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

The Crazy Ones - Likely Cancellation

Elementary - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

The Vampire Diaries - Already Renewed

Reign - Already Renewed

Surviving Jack - Likely Renewal

Community - Likely Renewal

Parks and Recreation - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/19/14 *Correct Prediction

Parenthood - Likely Renewal

Prediction Stats

Shows correctly predicted (so far) - 22
ABC - Mind Games, Once Upon a Time in Wonderland
CBS - 2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Blue Bloods, Criminal Minds, CSI, Elementary, The Good Wife, Hawaii Five-0, The Millers, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, Person of Interest, Two and a Half Men
FOX - Brooklyn Nine-Nine, New Girl, Raising Hope
NBC - Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., Grimm, Parks and Recreation

Shows incorrectly predicted (so far) - 3 - The Following, The Mindy Project, Mom

Current accuracy rate: 88%