Primetime Ratings, Monday, 5/26/14

FOX won the demo race, while ABC drew in the most total viewers.

The season premiere of 'MasterChef' bowed to a 1.5, not terrible by current FOX standards, but way down from the 2.1 last summer's premiere earned. '24: Live Another Day' dropped two more tenths in week four, settling at a 1.5. I'm still not ready to predict doom for Jack Bauer's future prospects, but we're rapidly approaching that point.

Over on the Peacock, an 'American Ninja Warrior' clip show earned a 0.8, while the season premiere of 'ANW' proper pulled down a 1.6. That's just slightly under the 1.7 last season's debut posted. ABC's 'The Bachelorette' dipped four tenths to a 1.6 in week two.

CBS' canceled sitcom 'Friends with Better Lives' fell two tenths to a new series low of 1.4. The Eye has since opted to pull the remaining episodes from the schedule, meaning viewers won't have 'FWBL' to kick around anymore. A rare Monday broadcast of '48 Hours' rose a tenth to 0.9.

Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions

8PM

ABC - The Bachelorette (N) - 1.6 - 5 - 6.03

FOX - MasterChef (Season Premiere) - 1.5 - 5 - 4.26

CBS - 2 Broke Girls (R) - 1.0 - 4 - 4.69

NBC - American Ninja Warrior (Clip Show) - 0.8 - 3 - 2.91

CW - Memorial Day (Movie) - 0.3 - 1 - 1.31

8:30PM

CBS - Friends with Better Lives (N) - 1.4 - 4 - 5.31

9PM

NBC - American Ninja Warrior (Season Premiere) - 1.6 - 5 - 4.65

FOX - 24: Live Another Day (N) - 1.5 - 4 - 5.71

CBS - Mike & Molly (R) - 1.0 - 3 - 5.02

9:30PM

CBS - Mom (R) - 0.9 - 3 - 4.92

10PM

CBS - 48 Hours (N) - 0.9 - 3 - 5.05

ABC - Castle (R) - 0.9 - 3 - 4.51

Source: Nielsen Media Research

PRIMETIME PROGNOSTICATION

The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:

1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)

2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)

3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)

4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)

5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)

Scripted Programming Returns 6/2/14

Scripted Programming Returns 6/30/14

Beauty and the Beast - Renewed (Incorrectly Predicted) Season Finale: 7/7/14

24: Live Another Day - Renewal Predicted

Final 2013-2014 Season Prediction Stats

ABC - Correct: 17, Incorrect: 2, Ineligible: 5

Renewals

Correct

Castle, The Goldbergs, Grey's Anatomy, Last Man Standing, Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
The Middle, Modern Family, Once Upon a Time, Resurrection, Revenge, Scandal

Incorrect

Nashville

Cancellations

Correct

Mind Games, Mixology, The Neighbors, OUaT in Wonderland, Super Fun Night, Trophy Wife

Incorrect

Suburgatory

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

The Assets, Back in the Game, Betrayal, Killer Women, Lucky 7

CBS - Correct: 18, Incorrect: 2, Ineligible: 2

Renewals

Correct

2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Blue Bloods, Criminal Minds, CSI, Elementary, The Good Wife
Hawaii Five-0, The Millers, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, Person of Interest, Two and a Half Men

Incorrect

The Mentalist, Mom

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

Unforgettable

Cancellations

Correct

Bad Teacher, The Crazy Ones, Friends with Better Lives, Hostages, Intelligence

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

We Are Men

CW - Correct: 5, Incorrect: 1, Ineligible: 5

Renewals

Correct

The 100, Hart of Dixie

Incorrect

Beauty and the Beast

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

Arrow, The Originals, Reign, Supernatural, The Vampire Diaries

Cancellations

Correct

The Carrie Diaries, Star-Crossed, The Tomorrow People

FOX - Correct: 8, Incorrect: 2, Ineligible: 7

Renewals

Correct

Brooklyn Nine-Nine, New Girl

Incorrect

The Following, The Mindy Project

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

Bob's Burgers, Bones, Family Guy, Glee, Sleepy Hollow, The Simpsons

Cancellations

Correct

Almost Human, Dads, Enlisted, Raising Hope, Rake, Surviving Jack

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

American Dad (Moving to TBS)

NBC - Correct: 11, Incorrect: 2, Ineligible: 5

Renewals

Correct

About a Boy, Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., Grimm, Hannibal
Law & Order: SVU, Parenthood, Parks and Recreation

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

The Blacklist

Cancellations

Correct

Believe, Crisis, Dracula, Revolution

Incorrect

Community, Growing Up Fisher

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

Ironside, The Michael J. Fox Show, Sean Saves the World, Welcome to the Family

Overall Stats - Correct: 60, Incorrect: 9, Ineligible: 24

Final Accuracy Rate: 87%