CBS won Wednesday night in all measures, knocking FOX off of its usual perch.
'Survivor' matched last week's 2.3 to start things off for the Eye. 'Criminal Minds' dipped one tenth to a 2.2, tying its previous series low. 'CSI's planted pilot for its new cyber crime spin-off failed to move the needle, matching the 1.7 earned by the veteran procedural's last new outing. 'American Idol' fell two tenths to a 1.9, tying its previous Wednesday low.
'The Middle' dropped one tenth to a 1.8 for ABC. 'Suburgatory' had an off week, falling two tenths to a 1.5. In a huge shocker, 'Modern Family' tumbled down a whopping seven tenths to a 2.8, a season low for the second most watched comedy on network TV. After last week's brief surge, 'Mixology' lost two of the three tenths it gained last week, posting a 1.3.
'Nashville' returned from break in dubious fashion, falling three tenths to a new series low of 1.2. I've been unsure about putting the guaranteed stamp on 'Nashville', but it's finally downgrade time. NBC's perpetually struggling 'Revolution' matched the 1.3 it's drawn for many weeks.
On the surface, a 1.3 should probably equal renewal for an NBC program right now, but 'Revolution' is a very high budget show when compared to fellow bubble shows like 'Community' and 'Parenthood,' and is thus much more likely to get the ax for financial reasons.
'Law & Order: SVU' kept up its season long yo-yo pattern, falling three tenths to a 1.8. 'Chicago P.D.'s crossover with parent show 'Chicago Fire' worked like a charm, rising three tenths to a 1.9. As for The CW, 'Arrow' rose a single tenth to a 0.8, while 'The 100' matched last week's 0.6. It's officially upgrade time for the latter's prediction.
Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions
CBS - Survivor (N) - 2.3 - 7 - 9.70
FOX - American Idol (N) - 1.9 - 6 - 8.79
ABC - The Middle (N) - 1.8 - 6 - 7.39
NBC - Revolution (N) - 1.3 - 4 - 4.32
CW - Arrow (N) - 0.8 - 2 - 2.31
ABC - Suburgatory (N) - 1.5 - 5 - 5.51
ABC - Modern Family (N) - 2.8 - 8 - 8.39
CBS - Criminal Minds (N) - 2.2 - 6 - 10.30
NBC - Law & Order: SVU (N) - 1.8 - 5 - 6.20
CW - The 100 (N) - 0.6 - 2 - 1.88
ABC - Mixology (N) - 1.3 - 4 - 3.78
NBC - Chicago P.D. (N) - 1.9 - 6 - 7.28
CBS - CSI (N) - 1.7 - 5 - 9.95
ABC - Nashville (N) - 1.2 - 4 - 4.62
Source: Nielsen Media Research
The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:
1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)
2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)
3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)
4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)
5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)
Newly updated predictions are in bold.
The Middle - Guaranteed Renewal
Suburgatory - Guaranteed Renewal
Modern Family - Guaranteed Renewal
Mixology - Guaranteed Cancellation
Super Fun Night - Guaranteed Cancellation
Nashville - Guaranteed Cancellation
Criminal Minds - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
CSI - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
Arrow - Already Renewed
The 100 - Guaranteed Renewal
No Scripted Programming Available
Revolution - Guaranteed Cancellation
Law & Order: SVU - Guaranteed Renewal
Chicago P.D. - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/19/14 *Correct Prediction
Shows correctly predicted - 23
ABC - Mind Games (C), Once Upon a Time in Wonderland (C)
CBS - 2 Broke Girls (R), The Big Bang Theory (R), Blue Bloods (R), Criminal Minds (R), CSI (R) Elementary (R), The Good Wife (R), Hawaii Five-0 (R), The Millers (R), NCIS (R) NCIS: Los Angeles (R), Person of Interest (R), Two and a Half Men (R)
FOX - Almost Human (C), Brooklyn Nine-Nine (R), New Girl (R), Raising Hope (C)
NBC - Chicago Fire (R), Chicago P.D. (R), Grimm (R), Parks and Recreation (R)
Shows incorrectly predicted - 3 - The Following (R), The Mindy Project (R), Mom (R)
Current accuracy rate: 88%
Shows that were renewed or canceled prior to 'Primetime Prognostication's debut - 21
ABC - The Assets (C), Back in the Game (C), Killer Women (C), Lucky 7 (C)
CBS - Unforgettable (R), We Are Men (C)
CW - Arrow (R), The Originals (R), Reign (R), Supernatural (R), The Vampire Diaries (R)
FOX - American Dad (C by FOX, R by TBS), Bob's Burgers (R), Bones (R), Glee (R), Sleepy Hollow (R), The Simpsons (R)
NBC - The Blacklist (R), Ironside (C), The Michael J. Fox Show (C), Sean Saves the World (C), Welcome to the Family (C)