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Primetime Ratings, Thursday, 5/1/14



CBS won Thursday night in all measures.

'The Big Bang Theory' matched last week's season low of 4.5. 'The Millers' fell four tenths to a 2.0. 'Two and a Half Men' took an equally large hit of its own, plunging four tenths to a 2.1. 'Bad Teacher' all but sealed its fate in week two, falling a massive seven tenths to a 1.4. On the other hand, 'Friends with Better Lives' prospects just went up. 'Elementary' matched last week's 1.6.

FOX's 'Hell's Kitchen' dropped a tenth to a 1.6. 'American Idol' tumbled down three tenths to a new all-time low of 1.5, and is rapidly becoming an embarrassment to its network. 'Surviving Jack' came in even with the 1.0 it's drawn the last two weeks, and remains a future ax victim.

Isaiah Washington's return to 'Grey's Anatomy' helped the veteran medical drama rise three tenths to a 2.6. 'Black Box' dropped two tenths to a 1.3 in week two, and is now on the chopping block. ABC has no major holes in their schedule, and has no real reason to renew a show doing that poorly.

The 'iHeart Radio Music Awards' earned a 1.7 for NBC, absolutely destroying what the usual Thursday comedy block pulls down. As for The CW, 'The Vampire Diaries' stayed flat with last week's decidedly underwhelming 0.8, while 'Reign' matched last week's 0.5.

Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions


CBS - The Big Bang Theory (N) - 4.5 - 16 - 16.07

NBC - iHeart Radio Music Awards - 1.7 - 5 - 5.48

FOX - Hell's Kitchen (N) - 1.6 - 6 - 4.47

ABC - Grey's Anatomy (R) - 1.0 - 3 - 4.28

CW -  The Vampire Diaries (N) - 0.8 - 3 - 1.84


CBS - The Millers (N) - 2.0 - 7 - 9.43


ABC - Grey's Anatomy (N) - 2.6 - 8 - 8.81

CBS - Two and a Half Men (N) - 2.1 - 6 - 8.97

FOX - American Idol (N) - 1.5 - 5 - 7.03

CW - Reign (N) - 0.5 - 2 - 1.40


CBS - Bad Teacher (N) - 1.4 - 4 - 6.47

FOX - Surviving Jack (N) - 1.0 - 3 - 3.92


CBS - Elementary (N) - 1.6 - 5 - 7.79

ABC - Black Box (N) - 1.3 - 4 - 5.60

Source: Nielsen Media Research


The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:

1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)

2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)

3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)

4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)

5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)

Newly updated predictions are in bold.


Once Upon a Time in Wonderland - Guaranteed Cancellation Canceled 3/28/14 *Correct Prediction

Grey's Anatomy - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 5/8/14 *Correct Prediction

Scandal - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 5/8/14 *Correct Prediction

Black Box - Guaranteed Cancellation


The Big Bang Theory - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/12/14 *Correct Prediction

The Millers - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

Two and a Half Men - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

The Crazy Ones - Guaranteed Cancellation

Bad Teacher - Guaranteed Cancellation

Elementary - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

The CW

The Vampire Diaries - Already Renewed

Reign - Already Renewed


Surviving Jack - Guaranteed Cancellation Canceled 5/7/14 *Correct Prediction


Community - Guaranteed Renewal

Parks and Recreation - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/19/14 *Correct Prediction

Parenthood - Guaranteed Renewal

Prediction Stats

Shows correctly predicted - 23
ABC - Mind Games (C), Once Upon a Time in Wonderland (C)
CBS - 2 Broke Girls (R), The Big Bang Theory (R), Blue Bloods (R), Criminal Minds (R), CSI (R) Elementary (R), The Good Wife (R), Hawaii Five-0 (R), The Millers (R), NCIS (R)                          NCIS: Los Angeles (R), Person of Interest (R), Two and a Half Men (R)
FOX - Almost Human (C), Brooklyn Nine-Nine (R), New Girl (R), Raising Hope (C)
NBC - Chicago Fire (R), Chicago P.D. (R), Grimm (R), Parks and Recreation (R)

Shows incorrectly predicted - 3 - The Following (R), The Mindy Project (R),  Mom (R)

Current accuracy rate: 88%

Shows that were renewed or canceled prior to 'Primetime Prognostication's debut - 21
ABC - The Assets (C), Back in the Game (C), Killer Women (C), Lucky 7 (C)
CBS - Unforgettable (R), We Are Men (C)
CW - Arrow (R), The Originals (R), Reign (R), Supernatural (R), The Vampire Diaries (R)
FOX - American Dad (C by FOX, R by TBS), Bob's Burgers (R), Bones (R), Glee (R), Sleepy Hollow (R), The Simpsons (R)
NBC - The Blacklist (R), Ironside (C), The Michael J. Fox Show (C), Sean Saves the World (C), Welcome to the Family (C)

- CW

Written by: Michael Stevenson
May 2nd, 2014, 7:51 am

Images courtesy of ABC

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