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Primetime Ratings, Wednesday, 5/7/14



CBS won Wednesday night in all measures.

'Survivor' bumped up a tenth to a 2.4. 'Criminal Minds' also rose a tenth, earning a 2.3. The season finale of 'CSI' experienced the largest positive movement of the night, rising two tenths to a 1.9. Over on FOX, the freshly renewed 'American Idol' matched its all-time low of 1.8.

It was night of lows for ABC, with 'The Middle' dipping two tenths to a new series low of 1.6. Lead-out 'Suburgatory' also shed two tenths, falling to a new series low of 1.3. 'Modern Family' just barely rose from last week's season low, increasing a single tenth to a 2.9.

'Mixology' matched last week's 1.3, and remains a goner. Of course, with today's shocking renewal of 'Beauty and the Beast,' I guess anything can happen. 'Nashville' matched last week's series low of 1.2, and despite others changing their prediction, I'm sticking with a cancellation on this one. Its ratings are just too low for ABC to justify a renewal. We'll all find out for sure next Tuesday.

NBC's struggling sophomore drama 'Revolution' fell two tenths to a new series low of 1.1, which is exactly the thing a show doesn't want to be doing right before the upfronts. Recently renewed drama 'Law & Order: SVU' continued its usual yo-yo pattern, tumbling down three tenths to a 1.5.

'Chicago P.D.' took a gigantic hit, plunging down half a point to a 1.4. Ouch. As for The CW, 'Arrow' matched last week's 0.8, while just renewed freshman drama 'The 100' stayed consistent with its usual 0.6. At least The CW renewed one show with decent ratings today.

Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions


CBS - Survivor (N) - 2.4 - 8 - 9.91

FOX - American Idol (N) - 1.8 - 6 - 7.97

ABC - The Middle (N) - 1.6 - 6 - 6.65

NBC - Revolution (N) - 1.1 - 4 - 3.78

CW - Arrow (N) - 0.8 - 2 - 2.33


ABC - Suburgatory (N) - 1.3 - 4 - 4.99


ABC - Modern Family (N) - 2.9 - 8 - 8.55

CBS - Criminal Minds (N) - 2.3 - 7 - 10.52

NBC - Law & Order: SVU (N) - 1.5 - 4 - 5.34

CW - The 100 (N) - 0.6 - 2 - 1.64


ABC - Mixology (N) - 1.3 - 4 - 3.84


CBS - CSI (Season Finale) - 1.9 - 6 - 10.01

NBC - Chicago P.D. (N) - 1.4 - 4 - 5.39

ABC - Nashville (N) - 1.2 - 4 - 4.70

Source: Nielsen Media Research


The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:

1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)

2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)

3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)

4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)

5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)


The Middle - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 5/8/14 *Correct Prediction

Suburgatory - Guaranteed Renewal Canceled 5/9/14 *Incorrect Prediction

Modern Family - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 5/8/14 *Correct Prediction

Mixology - Guaranteed Cancellation Canceled 5/8/14 *Correct Prediction

Super Fun Night - Guaranteed Cancellation Canceled 5/9/14 *Correct Prediction

Nashville - Guaranteed Cancellation Renewed 5/9/14 *Incorrect Prediction


Criminal Minds - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

CSI - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

The CW

Arrow - Already Renewed

The 100 - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 5/8/14 *Correct Prediction


No Scripted Programming Available


Revolution - Guaranteed Cancellation Canceled 5/9/14 *Correct Prediction

Law & Order: SVU - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 5/7/14 *Correct Prediction

Chicago P.D. - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/19/14 *Correct Prediction

Prediction Stats

Shows correctly predicted - 59

ABC - 17

Castle (R), The Goldbergs (R), Grey's Anatomy (R), Last Man Standing (R)
Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (R), The Middle (R), Mind Games (C), Mixology (C), Modern Family (R)
The Neighbors (C), Once Upon a Time (R), Once Upon a Time in Wonderland (C), Resurrection (R)
Revenge (R), Scandal (R), Super Fun Night (C), Trophy Wife (C)

CBS - 18

2 Broke Girls (R), Bad Teacher (C), The Big Bang Theory (R), Blue Bloods (R), The Crazy Ones (C)
Criminal Minds (R), CSI (R), Elementary (R), Friends with Better Lives (C), The Good Wife (R)
Hawaii Five-0 (R), Hostages (C), Intelligence (C), The Millers (R), NCIS (R), NCIS: Los Angeles (R)
Person of Interest (R), Two and a Half Men (R)

CW - 5

The 100 (R), The Carrie Diaries (C), Hart of Dixie (R), Star-Crossed (C), The Tomorrow People (C)

FOX - 8

Almost Human (C), Brooklyn Nine-Nine (R), Dads (C), Enlisted (C), New Girl (R), Raising Hope (C)
Rake (C), Surviving Jack (C)

NBC - 11

About a Boy (R), Believe (C), Chicago Fire (R), Chicago P.D. (R), Crisis (C), Dracula (C), Grimm (R)
Hannibal (R), Law & Order: SVU (R), Parks and Recreation (R), Revolution (C)

Shows incorrectly predicted - 9

Beauty and the Beast (R), Community (C), The Following (R), Growing Up Fisher (C), The Mentalist (R)
The Mindy Project (R), Mom (R), Nashville (R), Suburgatory (C)

Current accuracy rate: 87%

Shows that were renewed or canceled prior to 'Primetime Prognostication's debut - 24

ABC - The Assets (C), Back in the Game (C), Betrayal (C), Killer Women (C), Lucky 7 (C)
CBS - Unforgettable (R), We Are Men (C)
CW - Arrow (R), The Originals (R), Reign (R), Supernatural (R), The Vampire Diaries (R)
FOX - American Dad (C by FOX, R by TBS), Bob's Burgers (R), Bones (R), Family Guy (R), Glee (R), Sleepy Hollow (R), The Simpsons (R)
NBC - The Blacklist (R), Ironside (C), The Michael J. Fox Show (C), Sean Saves the World (C), Welcome to the Family (C)

- CW

Written by: Michael Stevenson
May 8th, 2014, 7:45 am

Images courtesy of NBC

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