Primetime Ratings, Monday, 5/19/14

 

 

NBC won the demo race, while ABC drew in the most total viewers.

'The Voice's last performance episode of the season finally rose from the 3.0 Monday low it had been sitting at for a month, albeit only two tenths to a 3.2. That's down half a point from last spring's final performance show. The first edition of 'The Maya Rudolph Show' earned a pretty healthy 2.1, topping its 10 p.m. competition in adults 18-49.

The final performance episode of 'Dancing with the Stars' season rose three tenths to a 2.6, topping last spring's final performance show by one tenth. The season premiere of 'The Bachelorette' mostly disappointed, earning only a 2.0, and nearly tying its all-time premiere low.

FOX's 'Bones' joined a rather dubious club, actually dropping a tenth to a 1.6 for its season finale. Just to clarify, it is very uncommon for a season finale, especially from an established show, to not at least match the rating of its penultimate episode. That 1.6 is also down half a point from the 2.1 scored by last season's capper.

'24: Live Another Day' seems to be steadily collapsing, dipping three more tenths to a 1.7 in week three, after just shedding six tenths in week two. I'm not yet ready to predict the end of Jack Bauer, as 1.7 remains well above the FOX scripted average. Still, the bloom seems to be off the '24' revival rose at this point, with only the hardcore fans sticking around for the long haul.

Finally, canceled sitcom 'Friends with Better Lives' matched last week's series low of 1.6. The show at least has a steady audience, if nothing else. That said, consistent mediocrity (for CBS) obviously won't get it uncanceled. 'Mike & Molly' also joined the season finale drop club, dipping a tenth to a 1.9, but at least matching last year's finale rating.

Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions

8PM

NBC - The Voice (N) - 3.2 - 10 - 11.70

ABC - Dancing with the Stars (N) - 2.6 - 8 - 15.66

FOX - Bones (Season Finale) - 1.6 - 5 - 6.04

CBS - 2 Broke Girls (R) - 1.3 - 4 - 4.83

CW - District 9 (Movie) - 0.2 - 1 - 0.63

8:30PM

CBS - Friends with Better Lives (N) - 1.6 - 5 - 5.13

9PM

CBS - Mike & Molly (Season Finale) - 1.9 - 6 - 7.05

FOX - 24: Live Another Day (N) - 1.7 - 5 - 5.72

9:30PM

ABC - The Bachelorette (Season Premiere) - 2.0 - 6 - 7.17

CBS - Mom (R) - 1.4 - 4 - 5.74

10PM

NBC - The Maya Rudolph Show (Series Premiere) - 2.1 - 6 - 6.84

CBS - Criminal Minds (R) - 1.3 - 4 - 5.91

Source: Nielsen Media Research

PRIMETIME PROGNOSTICATION

The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:

1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)

2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)

3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)

4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)

5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)

Scripted Programming Returns 6/2/14

Friends with Better Lives - Canceled (Correctly Predicted) Series Finale: 6/30/14

Mike & Molly - Renewed (Correctly Predicted) Season Finale: 5/19/14

Beauty and the Beast - Renewed (Incorrectly Predicted) Season Finale: 7/7/14

Bones - Renewed (No Prediction Made) Season Finale: 5/19/14

24: Live Another Day - Renewal Predicted

Final 2013-2014 Season Prediction Stats

ABC - Correct: 17, Incorrect: 2, Ineligible: 5

Renewals

Correct

Castle, The Goldbergs, Grey's Anatomy, Last Man Standing, Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
The Middle, Modern Family, Once Upon a Time, Resurrection, Revenge, Scandal

Incorrect

Nashville

Cancellations

Correct

Mind Games, Mixology, The Neighbors, OUaT in Wonderland, Super Fun Night, Trophy Wife

Incorrect

Suburgatory

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

The Assets, Back in the Game, Betrayal, Killer Women, Lucky 7

CBS - Correct: 18, Incorrect: 2, Ineligible: 2

Renewals

Correct

2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Blue Bloods, Criminal Minds, CSI, Elementary, The Good Wife
Hawaii Five-0, The Millers, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, Person of Interest, Two and a Half Men

Incorrect

The Mentalist, Mom

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

Unforgettable

Cancellations

Correct

Bad Teacher, The Crazy Ones, Friends with Better Lives, Hostages, Intelligence

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

We Are Men

CW - Correct: 5, Incorrect: 1, Ineligible: 5

Renewals

Correct

The 100, Hart of Dixie

Incorrect

Beauty and the Beast

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

Arrow, The Originals, Reign, Supernatural, The Vampire Diaries

Cancellations

Correct

The Carrie Diaries, Star-Crossed, The Tomorrow People

FOX - Correct: 8, Incorrect: 2, Ineligible: 7

Renewals

Correct

Brooklyn Nine-Nine, New Girl

Incorrect

The Following, The Mindy Project

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

Bob's Burgers, Bones, Family Guy, Glee, Sleepy Hollow, The Simpsons

Cancellations

Correct

Almost Human, Dads, Enlisted, Raising Hope, Rake, Surviving Jack

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

American Dad (Moving to TBS)

NBC - Correct: 11, Incorrect: 2, Ineligible: 5

Renewals

Correct

About a Boy, Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., Grimm, Hannibal
Law & Order: SVU, Parenthood, Parks and Recreation

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

The Blacklist

Cancellations

Correct

Believe, Crisis, Dracula, Revolution

Incorrect

Community, Growing Up Fisher

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

Ironside, The Michael J. Fox Show, Sean Saves the World, Welcome to the Family

Overall Stats - Correct: 60, Incorrect: 9, Ineligible: 24

Final Accuracy Rate: 87%