For the first Monday in quite some time, ABC prevailed among the 18-49 demo, although NBC still drew in the most total viewers.
The season finale of 'The Bachelor' rocketed up a full point to a 3.3. That said, that number is still down two tenths from last year's 3.5. The 'After the Final Rose' reunion special did even better, matching last year's 3.8. And that, my friends, is why 'The Bachelor' isn't going anywhere any time in the foreseeable future.
Conversely, 'The Voice' took an eight tenths dive for NBC, posting a 3.7. The heavily hyped Alfonso Cuaron created drama 'Believe' premiered to a disappointing 2.7. Now, don't get me wrong, if 'Believe' stays at or near a 2.7 from now on, it's a guaranteed pick-up. The reason that number is disappointing is due to it coming directly after the best lead-in on TV. No drama has ever debuted that poorly when airing after 'The Voice.'
With reality ruling the night, 'HIMYM' fell six tenths to its previous season low of 2.7. 'Mike & Molly' continued CBS' bad night, dropping four tenths to a new series low of 1.8. 'Intelligence' actually rose for once, increasing slightly to a 1.3.
'Bones' made its return to Mondays, but it wasn't entirely a triumphant one. While it technically rose a tenth to a 1.7, its last episode aired on a Friday. 'Bones' last new Monday installment pulled down a much more impressive 2.0.
Recently renewed drama 'The Following' marks my first incorrect prediction so far, as I had it pegged as a likely cancellation. In my defense, it has dropped every single week this season, setting another new series low of 1.5 last night. While Kevin Bacon's star power was likely a big factor in FOX's decision, it makes no logical sense why the network would renew a show that's audience has dropped by half in year two, unless they're just trying to hang on to anything with an existing fanbase.
Finally, 'Star-Crossed' and 'Beauty and the Beast' continued their march towards the ax, falling to an 0.3 and 0.2 respectively. The latter is an all-time low for the 'Beast.' The CW would be really, really wise to just cut their losses here and cancel these shows now. I'm sure a rerun of 'Supernatural' or 'The Vampire Diaries' would do much better in the same slots.
Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions
NBC - The Voice (N) - 3.7 - 11 - 13.79
ABC - The Bachelor (N) - 3.3 - 10 - 10.10
CBS - How I Met Your Mother (N) - 2.7 - 9 - 7.70
FOX - Bones (N) - 1.7 - 5 - 6.55
CW - Star-Crossed (N) - 0.3 - 1 - 0.99
CBS - 2 Broke Girls (R) - 1.3 - 4 - 5.26
CBS - Mike & Molly (N) - 1.8 - 5 - 7.67
FOX - The Following (N) - 1.5 - 4 - 4.86
CW - Beauty and the Beast (N) - 0.2 - 1 - 0.80
CBS - Mom (R) - 1.3 - 3 - 5.81
ABC - The Bachelor: After the Final Rose (N) - 3.8 - 11 - 10.97
NBC - Believe (Series Premiere) - 2.7 - 8 - 10.56
CBS - Intelligence (N) - 1.3 - 3 - 6.62
Source: Nielsen Media Research
The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:
1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)
2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)
3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)
4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)
5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)
Newly updated predictions are in bold.
Castle - Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother - Final Season
2 Broke Girls - Guaranteed Renewal
Mike & Molly - Likely Renewal
Mom - Likely Cancellation
Intelligence - Guaranteed Cancellation
Star-Crossed - Guaranteed Cancellation
Beauty and the Beast - Guaranteed Cancellation
Bones - Already Renewed
Almost Human - Likely Cancellation
The Following - Likely Cancellation Renewed 3/7/14 *Incorrect Prediction
The Blacklist - Already Renewed
Believe - Too Soon to Tell