ABC won the night in the 18-49 demo, while CBS drew more total viewers.
'America's Funniest Home Videos' returned to the tune of a 1.5, even with what its last original episode earned back in January. 'Once Upon a Time' proved that last week's large midseason bump was no fluke, matching last week's 2.4.
As expected, 'Resurrection' took a rather large tumble downward from last week's monster-sized 3.8 premiere rating, falling to a 3.1. Impressively, the drama still won the night among the 18-49 demo, drop and all. 'Revenge' dipped two tenths to a 1.7, but is still doing much better than it was a few months back, primarily thanks to its massive lead-in.
FOX's animation block mostly recovered from last week's huge losses, with 'Bob's Burgers' starting things off by rising two tenths to a 1.1. 'The Simpsons' jumped up three tenths to a 1.9. 'Family Guy' rose to a 2.3. The lone blight on the FOX animated landscape was 'American Dad,' which didn't air last week, and fell one tenth to a 1.4.
Week two of 'Cosmos' held up very well for FOX, dipping only one tenth to a 2.0. The normal timeslot premiere of NBC's 'Believe' failed to impress, plunging down over a full point to a 1.5. While its true that last Monday's series debut aired after a new 'Voice,' a twelve tenths drop is alarming, no matter how one chooses to look at things. New drama 'Crisis' premiered to a slightly better 1.6.
'60 Minutes' started CBS' night by rising two tenths to a 1.7. 'The Amazing Race' dropped slightly, but still managed a 1.8. Recently renewed veteran drama 'The Good Wife' didn't budge, sticking with last week's mediocre 1.3 rating.
Finally, conspicuously non-renewed drama 'The Mentalist' fell three tenths to a 1.3 of its own. I had earlier pegged 'Mentalist' as a likely candidate for renewal, but now that CBS has picked up literally every other drama it airs (outside of doomed freshman 'Intelligence') for next season, it would seem that the writing is on the wall for Patrick Jane. He may have survived Red John, but he likely won't survive the network ax.
Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions
CBS - 60 Minutes (N) - 1.7 - 6 - 11.26
ABC - America's Funniest Home Videos (N) - 1.5 - 5 - 6.39
NBC - The Voice (R) - 1.4 - 4 - 5.18
FOX - Bob's Burgers (N) - 1.1 - 4 - 2.44
FOX - American Dad (N) - 1.4 - 4 - 2.71
ABC - Once Upon a Time (N) - 2.4 - 7 - 7.75
FOX - The Simpsons (N) - 1.9 - 5 - 4.02
CBS - The Amazing Race (N) - 1.8 - 5 - 8.30
FOX - Family Guy (N) - 2.3 - 6 - 4.62
ABC - Resurrection (N) - 3.1 - 8 - 11.25
FOX - Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey (N) - 2.0 - 5 - 4.95
NBC - Believe (Timeslot Premiere) - 1.5 - 4 - 6.57
CBS - The Good Wife (N) - 1.3 - 3 - 8.43
ABC - Revenge (N) - 1.7 - 5 - 6.24
NBC - Crisis (Series Premiere) - 1.6 - 4 - 6.53
CBS - The Mentalist (N) - 1.3 - 4 - 8.65
Source: Nielsen Media Research
The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:
1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)
2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)
3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)
4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)
5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)
Newly updated predictions are in bold.
Once Upon a Time - Guaranteed Renewal
Resurrection - Guaranteed Renewal
Revenge - Guaranteed Renewal
The Good Wife - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
The Mentalist - Likely Cancellation
No Scripted Programming Available
The Simpsons - Already Renewed
Bob's Burgers - Already Renewed
Family Guy - Guaranteed Renewal
American Dad - Already Renewed (by TBS)
Believe - Too Soon to Tell
Crisis - Too Soon to Tell
Shows correctly predicted (so far) - 16 - 2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Blue Bloods, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Criminal Minds, CSI, Elementary, The Good Wife, Hawaii Five-0, The Millers, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, New Girl, Person of Interest, Raising Hope, Two and a Half Men
Shows incorrectly predicted (so far) - 3 - The Following, The Mindy Project, Mom
Current accuracy rate: 84%