NBC reclaimed its usual Monday demo crown, while ABC drew the most total viewers.
'The Voice' recovered decently from last week's gigantic drop, rising four tenths to a 4.1, and (as per usual) topping the night in the 18-49 demo. 'The Blacklist' settled back into its usual range, matching its last new outing's 2.7. The James Spader-fronted drama has easily the most stable ratings pattern of any freshman series this season.
'Dancing with the Stars' returned to a disappointing 2.6, way down from both the 3.2 last spring's premiere drew and the 3.1 last fall's premiere posted. Lead-out 'Castle' did okay at least, rising two tenths to a 1.8. FOX had a bad night all around, with 'Bones' falling three tenths to a 1.4, and actually managing to do worse than it had been on Fridays. 'The Following' earned a 1.4 as well, yet another new series low for the recently renewed drama.
'HIMYM' started off CBS' night right, rising two tenths to a 2.9. Of course, '2 Broke Girls' inexplicably jumped off a cliff right afterward, falling four tenths to a new all-time low of 2.2. The Eye was never able to regain 'Mother's momentum, with 'Mike and Molly' and 'Mom' both falling to series low 1.8s. 'Intelligence' didn't help things, dipping two tenths to its own series low of 1.1.
Finally, 'Star-Crossed' stuck to its perpetually meager 0.3 for The CW. The Monday debut of 'The Tomorrow People' earned a 0.4, matching its last Wednesday airing, and besting the barely existent 0.2 that 'Beauty and the Beast' pulled down in the same slot last Monday. Still, topping the lowest rated show on The CW is hardly a reason for 'TTP' fans to feel any better about its renewal chances.
Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions
NBC - The Voice (N) - 4.1 - 12 - 13.52
CBS - How I Met Your Mother (N) - 2.9 - 9 - 7.78
ABC - Dancing with the Stars (Season Premiere) - 2.6 - 7 - 15.44
FOX - Bones (N) - 1.4 - 4 - 5.63
CW - Star-Crossed (N) - 0.3 - 1 - 1.00
CBS - 2 Broke Girls (N) - 2.2 - 6 - 7.21
CBS - Mike & Molly (N) - 1.8 - 5 - 7.70
FOX - The Following (N) - 1.4 - 4 - 3.95
CW - The Tomorrow People (N) - 0.4 - 1 - 1.17
CBS - Mom (N) - 1.8 - 5 - 7.05
NBC - The Blacklist (N) - 2.7 - 8 - 10.97
ABC - Castle (N) - 1.8 - 5 - 9.99
CBS - Intelligence (N) - 1.1 - 3 - 5.30
Source: Nielsen Media Research
The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:
1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)
2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)
3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)
4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)
5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)
Newly updated predictions are in bold.
Castle - Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother - Final Season
2 Broke Girls - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
Mike & Molly - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
Mom - Likely Cancellation Renewed 3/13/14 *Incorrect Prediction
Intelligence - Guaranteed Cancellation
Star-Crossed - Guaranteed Cancellation
Beauty and the Beast - Guaranteed Cancellation
The Tomorrow People - Guaranteed Cancellation
Bones - Already Renewed
Almost Human - Likely Cancellation
The Following - Likely Cancellation Renewed 3/7/14 *Incorrect Prediction
The Blacklist - Already Renewed
Shows correctly predicted (so far) - 16 - 2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Blue Bloods, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Criminal Minds, CSI, Elementary, The Good Wife, Hawaii Five-0, The Millers, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, New Girl, Person of Interest, Raising Hope, Two and a Half Men
Shows incorrectly predicted (so far) - 3 - The Following, The Mindy Project, Mom
Current accuracy rate: 84%