FOX and CBS tied for first among the 18-49 demo, while CBS won out with total viewers.
'American Idol' continued its rapid collapse, falling another two tenths to a 2.2, and setting yet another all-time low for the show that used to dominate TV. 'Survivor' matched last week's 2.5, managing to top 'Idol' for the second straight week. 'Criminal Minds' shed a tenth of its own, falling to a series low of 2.2. That said, it too topped idol, this time in total viewers. 'CSI' matched last week's 2.0.
ABC mostly took the night off, with freshman comedy 'Mixology' the network's only new program on offer. As expected, the show absolutely collapsed without 'Modern Family' as a lead-in, falling three tenths to a series low of 1.2. 'Mixology' gets closer to mixing itself a cyanide cocktail every week.
After maintaining its 1.3 rating for multiple weeks, 'Revolution' finally fell to a new series low of 1.2. Yep, a new episode of 'Revolution' just lost to a repeat of 'The Middle.' 'Law & Order: SVU' dipped one tenth to a 1.5, and while I'm not yet ready to downgrade its prediction, it is a bit curious that NBC chose not to renew 'SVU' alongside its Dick Wolf created brethren 'Chicago Fire' and 'Chicago P.D.' Speaking of 'P.D.,' it fell two tenths to a new series low of 1.4.
As for The CW, 'Arrow' rose ever so slightly to a 0.8. The real surprise of the night came from the series premiere of 'The 100,' which earned a 0.9, topping its lead-in. 'The 100's 0.9. is also up half a point from the 0.4 'The Tomorrow People' most recently earned in the same timeslot. That's not good news for 'TTP,' which was already highly unlikely to be renewed for a second season.
Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions
CBS - Survivor (N) - 2.5 - 8 - 9.46
FOX - American Idol (N) - 2.2 - 7 - 9.83
ABC - The Middle (R) - 1.4 - 5 - 5.36
NBC - Revolution (N) - 1.2 - 4 - 4.26
CW - Arrow (N) - 0.8 - 3 - 2.42
ABC - Suburgatory (R) - 1.2 - 4 - 4.31
CBS - Criminal Minds (N) - 2.2 - 6 - 10.14
ABC - Modern Family (R) - 1.8 - 5 - 5.51
NBC - Law & Order: SVU (N) - 1.5 - 5 - 5.82
CW - The 100 (Series Premiere) - 0.9 - 3 - 2.73
ABC - Mixology (N) - 1.2 - 3 - 3.66
CBS - CSI (N) - 2.0 - 6 - 10.20
NBC - Chicago P.D. (N) - 1.4 - 4 - 5.74
ABC - Nashville (R) - 0.6 - 2 - 2.54
Source: Nielsen Media Research
The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:
1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)
2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)
3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)
4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)
5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)
Newly updated predictions are in bold.
The Middle - Likely Renewal
Suburgatory - Likely Renewal
Modern Family - Guaranteed Renewal
Mixology - Likely Cancellation
Nashville - Likely Cancellation
Criminal Minds - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
CSI - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
Arrow - Already Renewed
The 100 - Too Soon to Tell
No Scripted Programming Available
Revolution - Guaranteed Cancellation
Law & Order: SVU - Guaranteed Renewal
Chicago P.D. - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/19/14 *Correct Prediction
Shows correctly predicted (so far) - 20
CBS - 2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Blue Bloods, Criminal Minds, CSI, Elementary, The Good Wife, Hawaii Five-0, The Millers, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, Person of Interest, Two and a Half Men
FOX - Brooklyn Nine-Nine, New Girl, Raising Hope
NBC - Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., Grimm, Parks and Recreation
Shows incorrectly predicted (so far) - 3 - The Following, The Mindy Project, Mom
Current accuracy rate: 87%