CBS won Sunday night in all measures.
An NCAA March Madness overrun did great, earning a monster 4.7 rating, while delaying the start of CBS primetime by about 20 minutes. With that gigantic lead-in, '60 Minutes' shot up eight tenths to a 2.8. 'The Amazing Race' followed that up by rising two tenths to a 2.0. One week after last Sunday's shocker, 'The Good Wife' rose four tenths to a 1.8. Still not renewed veteran drama 'The Mentalist' rose two tenths to a 1.5.
Over on ABC, 'America's Funniest Home Videos' dropped a tenth to a 1.3. 'Once Upon a Time' stayed in its recent range, matching last week's 2.1. 'Resurrection' dropped yet again in week four, dipping one tenth to a 2.4. Luckily, a 2.4 is still high enough to earn the show a second season. 'Revenge' finished things by decreasing a tenth to a 1.4.
FOX had a mixed night, with 'Bob's Burgers' falling two tenths to a 1.0 to lead off. 'American Dad' and 'The Simpsons' both matched last week's numbers, earning a 1.4 and a 1.9 respectively. 'Family Guy' dipped a tenth to a 2.1. 'Cosmos' shed another two tenths in week four, posting a 1.5.
Week two of NBC's 'American Dream Builders' fell even further from its already anemic premiere, earning a 0.8. Freshman drama duo 'Believe' and 'Crisis' continued their collective march toward the Peacock's colorful ax, with both falling to matching 1.1s.
It's highly unlikely either of these shows, especially the heavily promoted 'Believe,' gets renewed while barely breaking 1.0. That said, canceling both may leave a hole in the schedule, a hole that could be filled by sophomore slumping sci-fi series 'Revolution.' If NBC is going to renew a drama drawing in the low 1s, it's much more likely to bring back a veteran than a newcomer.
Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions
CBS - NCAA March Madness - 4.7 - 18 - 14.64
ABC - America's Funniest Home Videos (N) - 1.3 - 4 - 6.23
FOX - Bob's Burgers (N) - 1.0 - 3 - 2.26
NBC - The Voice (R) - 0.6 - 2 - 2.87
CBS - 60 Minutes (N) - 2.8 - 9 - 14.30
FOX - American Dad (N) - 1.4 - 4 - 2.79
ABC - Once Upon a Time (N) - 2.1 - 6 - 6.64
FOX - The Simpsons (N) - 1.9 - 5 - 3.91
NBC - American Dream Builders (N) - 0.8 - 2 - 3.10
FOX - Family Guy (N) - 2.1 - 6 - 4.17
CBS - The Amazing Race (N) - 2.0 - 5 - 9.51
ABC - Resurrection (N) - 2.4 - 6 - 8.39
FOX - Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey (N) - 1.5 - 4 - 3.91
NBC - Believe (N) - 1.1 - 3 - 4.89
CBS - The Good Wife (N) - 1.8 - 4 - 10.96
ABC - Revenge (N) - 1.4 - 4 - 5.25
NBC - Crisis (N) - 1.1 - 3 - 4.34
CBS - The Mentalist (N) - 1.5 - 4 - 8.72
Source: Nielsen Media Research
The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:
1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)
2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)
3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)
4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)
5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)
Newly updated predictions are in bold.
Once Upon a Time - Guaranteed Renewal
Resurrection - Guaranteed Renewal
Revenge - Guaranteed Renewal
The Good Wife - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
The Mentalist - Likely Cancellation
No Scripted Programming Available
The Simpsons - Already Renewed
Bob's Burgers - Already Renewed
Family Guy - Guaranteed Renewal
American Dad - Already Renewed (by TBS)
Believe - Likely Cancellation
Crisis - Likely Cancellation
Shows correctly predicted (so far) - 22
ABC - Mind Games, Once Upon a Time in Wonderland
CBS - 2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Blue Bloods, Criminal Minds, CSI, Elementary, The Good Wife, Hawaii Five-0, The Millers, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, Person of Interest, Two and a Half Men
FOX - Brooklyn Nine-Nine, New Girl, Raising Hope
NBC - Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., Grimm, Parks and Recreation
Shows incorrectly predicted (so far) - 3 - The Following, The Mindy Project, Mom
Current accuracy rate: 88%