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Primetime Ratings, Wednesday, 4/9/14



CBS won Wednesday night in all measures.

'Survivor' bumped up a tenth to a 2.4, once again besting 'American Idol.' I know I should probably quit mentioning that every week at this point, but I never would have imagined back in September that 'Survivor' would be trumping 'Idol' on a weekly basis.

Moving on, 'Criminal Minds' continued its usual yo-yo pattern, falling to a 2.3., and losing three of the four tenths it gained last week. 'CSI' dipped a tenth to a 1.7. The aforementioned 'Idol' also shed a single tenth for FOX, posting a 2.0.

A heavily promoted episode of 'Law & Order: SVU' shot up four tenths to a 2.1 for NBC. 'Chicago P.D.' matched last week's 1.6, and seems to have pulled out of its ratings tailspin. Freshman ABC comedy 'Mixology' jumped off a cliff, plunging four tenths to a new series low of 1.2. It's prediction downgrade time. Finally, 'The 100' fell to its own new series low of 0.5 for The CW, but won't gets its prediction downgraded until it does as bad as 'The Tomorrow People.'

Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions


CBS - Survivor (N) - 2.4 - 7 - 9.62

FOX - American Idol (N) - 2.0 - 7 - 8.90

ABC - The Middle (R) - 1.4 - 5 - 4.97

NBC - Law & Order: SVU (R) - 0.9 - 3 - 4.17

CW - Arrow (R) - 0.4 - 1 - 1.18


ABC - Suburgatory (R) - 1.2 - 4 - 3.85


CBS - Criminal Minds (N) - 2.3 - 7 - 9.85

NBC - Law & Order: SVU (N) - 2.1 - 6 - 7.41

ABC - Modern Family (R) - 1.6 - 5 - 5.11

CW - The 100 (N) - 0.5 - 2 - 1.69


ABC - Mixology (N) - 1.2 - 4 - 3.65


CBS - CSI (N) - 1.7 - 5 - 9.11

NBC - Chicago P.D. (N) - 1.6 - 5 - 6.49

ABC - Nashville (R) - 0.6 - 2 - 2.47

Source: Nielsen Media Research


The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:

1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)

2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)

3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)

4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)

5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)

Newly updated predictions are in bold.


The Middle - Likely Renewal

Suburgatory - Likely Renewal

Modern Family - Guaranteed Renewal

Mixology - Guaranteed Cancellation

Nashville - Likely Cancellation


Criminal Minds - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

CSI - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

The CW

Arrow - Already Renewed

The 100 - Likely Renewal


No Scripted Programming Available


Revolution - Guaranteed Cancellation

Law & Order: SVU - Guaranteed Renewal

Chicago P.D. - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/19/14 *Correct Prediction

Prediction Stats

Shows correctly predicted (so far) - 22
ABC - Mind Games, Once Upon a Time in Wonderland
CBS - 2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Blue Bloods, Criminal Minds, CSI, Elementary, The Good Wife, Hawaii Five-0, The Millers, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, Person of Interest, Two and a Half Men
FOX - Brooklyn Nine-Nine, New Girl, Raising Hope
NBC - Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., Grimm, Parks and Recreation

Shows incorrectly predicted (so far) - 3 - The Following, The Mindy Project, Mom

Current accuracy rate: 88%

- CW

Written by: Michael Stevenson
Apr 10th, 2014, 7:12 am

Images courtesy of NBC


Message Posted On Apr 12th, 2014, 5:23 am
It would be interesting to know if you can predict Netflix series renewals using the similar criteria or would it be a completely different set. Of course im interested in Orange is the New Black and House of Cards, loved those shows, somewhat to my surprise. I think they are in a different setting, like cable shows, which have different incentives than raw ratings.
(Crazed Contributor)

Level 39 (80%)
Points: 17835
Since: 07/Jul/10
Message Posted On Apr 10th, 2014, 10:10 am

I appreciate the civil way in which you presented your opinion Anonymous, but I respectfully disagree with that assessment. I've had Mixology pegged as a "likely cancellation" since week three. It just did so bad this week that I put the "guaranteed" on it. I had OUAT in Wonderland predicted as a "guaranteed cancellation" since last fall. I put Believe and Crisis on the "likely cancellation" list after only two episodes. I put the guaranteed renewal stamp on Resurrection and Chicago P.D. almost immediately.

That's hardly waiting until cancellation or renewal was a foregone conclusion in any of those cases. Plus, the fact that I've gotten several predictions wrong points to me not waiting until things are certain one way or another.


Message Posted On Apr 10th, 2014, 9:45 am
No offence Michael, but you are making your predictions about most of these shows (new ones especially) when it is pretty much a forgone conclusion that it will be cancelled. You don't really go out on a limb for any of them.
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