CBS and ABC split the Thursday victory.
In a mild shocker, 'The Big Bang Theory' dropped two tenths to a 4.7, setting a new season low for the most popular comedy on television. 'The Millers' followed that by dipping three tenths to a 2.5. 'Two and a Half Men' dipped a tenth as well, posting a 2.4. 'The Crazy Ones' once again matched the 1.7 it's been earning for weeks, but its lack of improvement has likely sealed its doom. 'Elementary' was the Eye's only offering to rise, bumping up one tenth to a 1.6.
A special Thurday airing of 'Shark Tank' earned a 1.7 for ABC, way up from the 0.9 'Once Upon a Time in Wonderland's finale earned last week in the same slot. Still, last Friday's 'Tank' scored a 2.0, making it the rare series that might be better off at the end of the week. 'Grey's Anatomy' fell one tenth to a 2.6, although it still topped 9 p.m. 'Scandal' rose a tenth to a 3.0.
Over on FOX, 'Hell's Kitchen' plunged four tenths to a season low of 1.4. 'American Idol' rose one tenth from last Thursday's all-time low, garnering a 1.8. 'Surviving Jack' matched last week's 1.2, and has fallen only one tenth since its premiere. As such, it's getting upgraded to a likely renewal. If 'Mindy' can get renewed while posting 1.2s (or worse), so can 'Jack.'
In a worrying sign for 'Community' fans, the cult comedy' matched last week's series low of 0.9. I still think 'Community' will get renewed, if only because of the gigantic amounts of fan backlash that would occur if NBC cut the show off right before the long demanded "six seasons and a movie." That said, a renewal at this point will come by the skin of 'Community's teeth.
Already renewed comedy 'Parks and Recreation' dropped a tenth to a 1.0. 'Parenthood' also shed a single tenth, matching its previous series low of 1.1. Finally, 'Reign' fell two tenths to a new series low of 0.4. I was perplexed when The CW renewed this a few months back, and I remain perplexed now. Surely the network had to know that a show doing 0.6s was only going to fall further?
Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions
CBS - The Big Bang Theory (N) - 4.7 - 17 - 16.29
ABC - Shark Tank (N) - 1.7 - 6 - 6.85
FOX - Hell's Kitchen (N) - 1.4 - 5 - 4.17
NBC - Community (N) - 0.9 - 3 - 2.56
CW - The Vampire Diaries (R) - 0.3 - 1 - 0.84
CBS - The Millers (N) - 2.5 - 9 - 10.07
NBC - Parks & Recreation (N) - 1.0 - 3 - 2.56
ABC - Grey's Anatomy (N) - 2.6 - 8 - 8.18
CBS - Two and a Half Men (N) - 2.4 - 8 - 9.55
FOX - American Idol (N) - 1.8 - 5 - 7.63
NBC - Hollywood Game Night (R) - 0.9 - 3 - 2.62
CW - Reign (N) - 0.4 - 1 - 1.23
CBS - The Crazy Ones (N) - 1.7 - 5 - 6.87
FOX - Surviving Jack (N) - 1.2 - 4 - 4.32
ABC - Scandal (N) - 3.0 - 9 - 9.23
CBS - Elementary (N) - 1.6 - 5 - 7.90
NBC - Parenthood (N) - 1.1 - 3 - 3.66
Source: Nielsen Media Research
The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:
1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)
2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)
3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)
4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)
5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)
Newly updated predictions are in bold.
Once Upon a Time in Wonderland - Guaranteed Cancellation Canceled 3/28/14 *Correct Prediction
Grey's Anatomy - Guaranteed Renewal
Scandal - Guaranteed Renewal
The Big Bang Theory - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/12/14 *Correct Prediction
The Millers - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
Two and a Half Men - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
The Crazy Ones - Likely Cancellation
Elementary - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
The Vampire Diaries - Already Renewed
Reign - Already Renewed
Surviving Jack - Likely Renewal
Community - Likely Renewal
Parks and Recreation - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/19/14 *Correct Prediction
Parenthood - Likely Renewal
Shows correctly predicted (so far) - 22
ABC - Mind Games, Once Upon a Time in Wonderland
CBS - 2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Blue Bloods, Criminal Minds, CSI, Elementary, The Good Wife, Hawaii Five-0, The Millers, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, Person of Interest, Two and a Half Men
FOX - Brooklyn Nine-Nine, New Girl, Raising Hope
NBC - Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., Grimm, Parks and Recreation
Shows incorrectly predicted (so far) - 3 - The Following, The Mindy Project, Mom
Current accuracy rate: 88%