FOX won a pretty quiet Wednesday night in all measures.
'American Idol' dropped a tenth for the second week in a row, earning a 1.9. Were it not for the lack of major competition, there is no way FOX would have won the night. Over on CBS, 'Survivor' dipped one tenth to a 2.3, matching the veteran reality series' previous all-time low.
ABC's freshman comedy 'Mixology' matched last week's dire 1.2, cementing its status as guaranteed ax fodder. As for The CW, 'Arrow' tied its previous series low of 0.7. 'The 100' matched last week's 0.5, but is still more likely to get renewed than a 'Tomorrow People' or a 'Beauty and the Beast.'
In random rerun related observations, an encore of 'The Middle' earned a 1.3, further embarrassing 'Mixology.' A rerun of 'Law & Order: SVU' outdrew the latest new episodes of every NBC comedy not named 'About a Boy' and 'Growing Up Fisher.' 'Modern Family' reruns draw better numbers than the new broadcasts of half of NBC and FOX's line-ups.
Oh, one more thing. With us being less than a month out from the network upfronts, I'm going to be changing most of my "likely" renewals or cancellations to "guaranteed" ones soon. To that end, two ABC shows have been upgraded below.
Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions
CBS - Survivor (N) - 2.3 - 8 - 9.35
FOX - American Idol (N) - 1.9 - 6 - 8.53
ABC - The Middle (R) - 1.3 - 5 - 5.23
NBC - Law & Order: SVU (R) - 1.1 - 4 - 4.61
CW - Arrow (N) - 0.7 - 2 - 2.26
ABC - Suburgatory (R) - 1.1 - 3 - 3.75
ABC - Modern Family (R) - 1.6 - 5 - 5.29
CBS - Criminal Minds (R) - 1.4 - 4 - 6.88
NBC - Law & Order: SVU (R) - 1.3 - 4 - 4.61
CW - The 100 (N) - 0.5 - 2 - 1.80
ABC - Mixology (N) - 1.2 - 3 - 3.86
CBS - CSI (R) - 1.2 - 4 - 6.79
NBC - Chicago P.D. (R) - 1.0 - 3 - 4.17
ABC - Nashville (R) - 0.7 - 2 - 2.88
Source: Nielsen Media Research
The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:
1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)
2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)
3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)
4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)
5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)
Newly updated predictions are in bold.
The Middle - Guaranteed Renewal
Suburgatory - Guaranteed Renewal
Modern Family - Guaranteed Renewal
Mixology - Guaranteed Cancellation
Nashville - Likely Cancellation
Criminal Minds - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
CSI - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
Arrow - Already Renewed
The 100 - Likely Renewal
No Scripted Programming Available
Revolution - Guaranteed Cancellation
Law & Order: SVU - Guaranteed Renewal
Chicago P.D. - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/19/14 *Correct Prediction
Shows correctly predicted (so far) - 22
ABC - Mind Games, Once Upon a Time in Wonderland
CBS - 2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Blue Bloods, Criminal Minds, CSI, Elementary, The Good Wife, Hawaii Five-0, The Millers, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, Person of Interest, Two and a Half Men
FOX - Brooklyn Nine-Nine, New Girl, Raising Hope
NBC - Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., Grimm, Parks and Recreation
Shows incorrectly predicted (so far) - 3 - The Following, The Mindy Project, Mom
Current accuracy rate: 88%