NBC won the 18-49 demo race, while ABC drew in the most total viewers.
'The Voice's first live performance episode of the season plunged four tenths to a 3.0, an all-time low for a Monday telecast. Impressively, lead-out 'The Blacklist' was entirely unaffected by this, matching its last original outing's 2.8.
ABC's 'Dancing with the Stars' dropped one tenth to a 2.2. 'Castle' returned after a few weeks off to the tune of a 1.8, exactly in line with its last new episode. '2 Broke Girls' dipped two tenths to a new series low of 2.1 to begin CBS' night.
'Friends with Better Lives' dropped a single tenth to a 1.7 in week three, but I have a hard time seeing this getting renewed. If CBS feels that it has to pick up one more existing comedy for the fall, it'll likely be 'The Crazy Ones' (more star power) or the upcoming 'Bad Teacher' (higher profile). Finally, 'Mike & Molly' fell two tenths to a 1.9.
FOX's 'Bones' rose a tenth to a 1.5, while 'The Following' earned another 1.4. For those keeping score, 'The Following' has now been camped out at 1.4 for six straight weeks. As for The CW, 'Star-Crossed' maintained its eternal 0.3, while 'The Tomorrow People' fell to a 0.3 of its own.
Oh, one more thing. With us being less than a month out from the network upfronts, I'm going to be changing most of my "likely" renewals or cancellations to "guaranteed" ones soon. To that end, one ABC show has been upgraded, and one FOX show has been downgraded below.
Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions
NBC - The Voice (N) - 3.0 - 9 - 11.19
ABC - Dancing with the Stars (N) - 2.2 - 6 - 14.06
CBS - 2 Broke Girls (N) - 2.1 - 6 - 7.10
FOX - Bones (N) - 1.5 - 5 - 5.97
CW - Star-Crossed (N) - 0.3 - 1 - 0.81
CBS - Friends with Better Lives (N) - 1.7 - 5 - 5.41
CBS - Mike & Molly (N) - 1.9 - 5 - 7.33
FOX - The Following (N) - 1.4 - 4 - 4.42
CW - The Tomorrow People (N) - 0.3 - 1 - 0.76
CBS - The Big Bang Theory (R) - 1.9 - 5 - 6.94
NBC - The Blacklist (N) - 2.8 - 8 - 11.24
ABC - Castle (N) - 1.8 - 5 - 9.76
CBS - NCIS: Los Angeles (R) - 0.9 - 3 - 4.38
Source: Nielsen Media Research
The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:
1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)
2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)
3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)
4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)
5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)
Newly updated predictions are in bold.
Castle - Guaranteed Renewal
2 Broke Girls - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
Friends with Better Lives - Likely Cancellation
Mike & Molly - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
Mom - Likely Cancellation Renewed 3/13/14 *Incorrect Prediction
Intelligence - Guaranteed Cancellation
Hostages - Guaranteed Cancellation
Star-Crossed - Guaranteed Cancellation
Beauty and the Beast - Guaranteed Cancellation
The Tomorrow People - Guaranteed Cancellation
Bones - Already Renewed
Almost Human - Guaranteed Cancellation
The Following - Likely Cancellation Renewed 3/7/14 *Incorrect Prediction
The Blacklist - Already Renewed
Shows correctly predicted (so far) - 22
ABC - Mind Games, Once Upon a Time in Wonderland
CBS - 2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Blue Bloods, Criminal Minds, CSI, Elementary, The Good Wife, Hawaii Five-0, The Millers, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, Person of Interest, Two and a Half Men
FOX - Brooklyn Nine-Nine, New Girl, Raising Hope
NBC - Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., Grimm, Parks and Recreation
Shows incorrectly predicted (so far) - 3 - The Following, The Mindy Project, Mom
Current accuracy rate: 88%