Primetime Ratings, Tuesday, 4/22/14

NBC and CBS once again split the Tuesday victory.

'The Voice' began the Peacock's night by falling two tenths to a 2.8. Lead-out 'About a Boy' continues to impress, rising one tenth to a 1.9. 'Growing Up Fisher' remained stable, matching the 1.5 it's drawn for the past two weeks. 'Boy' and 'Fisher' are so far above the NBC comedy average that the network would have to be insane to not renew them both.

'Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.' seems to be embarking on a yo-yo pattern for ABC, shedding the two tenths it just gained last week. 1.9 or no, there is still no way this show gets canceled. 'Celebrity Wife Swap' dipped a tenth to a 0.9 in week two of its new season.

FOX's 'Glee' dipped a tenth to a 0.9 of its own. 'The Mindy Project' matched last week's 1.0. In a mild shocker, 'The Originals' fell to a new series low of 0.6. I honestly have no clue why this show's ratings are crumbling, but at least it got renewed first. Conversely, 'Supernatural' rose two tenths to a 0.9.

Oh, one more thing. With us being less than a month out from the network upfronts, I'm going to be changing most of my "likely" renewals or cancellations to "guaranteed" ones soon. To that end, one ABC show has been upgraded below.

Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions

8PM

NBC - The Voice (N) - 2.8 - 9 - 11.29

ABC - Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (N) - 1.9 - 6 - 6.04

CBS - NCIS (R) - 1.2 - 4 - 10.40

FOX - Glee (N) - 0.9 - 3 - 2.45

CW - The Originals (N) - 0.6 - 2 - 1.50

9PM

NBC - About A Boy (N) - 1.9 - 6 - 6.86

CBS - NCIS: Los Angeles (R) - 1.4 - 4 - 10.18

ABC - The Goldbergs (R) - 0.9 - 3 - 3.12

CW - Supernatural (N) - 0.9 - 3 - 2.10

FOX - New Girl (R) - 0.6 - 2 - 1.38

9:30PM

NBC - Growing Up Fisher (N) - 1.5 - 4 - 5.83

FOX - The Mindy Project (N) - 1.0 - 3 - 2.14

ABC - Trophy Wife (R) - 0.6 - 2 - 2.22

10PM

CBS - Person of Interest (R) - 1.1 - 3 - 7.53

NBC - Chicago Fire (R) - 0.9 - 3 - 4.18

ABC - Celebrity Wife Swap (N) - 0.9 - 3 - 3.13

Source: Nielsen Media Research

PRIMETIME PROGNOSTICATION

The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:

1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)

2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)

3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)

4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)

5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)

Newly updated predictions are in bold.

Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. - Guaranteed Renewal

The Goldbergs - Guaranteed Renewal

Trophy Wife - Guaranteed Cancellation

Mind Games - Guaranteed Cancellation Canceled 3/27/14 *Correct Prediction

NCIS - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

NCIS: Los Angeles - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

Person of Interest - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

The Originals - Already Renewed

Supernatural - Already Renewed

Glee - Already Renewed

New Girl - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/7/14 *Correct Prediction

Brookyln Nine-Nine - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/7/14 *Correct Prediction

The Mindy Project - Likely Cancellation Renewed 3/7/14 *Incorrect Prediction

Dads - Guaranteed Cancellation

About A Boy - Guaranteed Renewal

Growing Up Fisher - Guaranteed Renewal

Chicago Fire - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/19/14 *Correct Prediction

Prediction Stats

Shows correctly predicted (so far) - 22
ABC - Mind Games, Once Upon a Time in Wonderland
CBS - 2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Blue Bloods, Criminal Minds, CSI, Elementary, The Good Wife, Hawaii Five-0, The Millers, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, Person of Interest, Two and a Half Men
FOX - Brooklyn Nine-Nine, New Girl, Raising Hope
NBC - Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., Grimm, Parks and Recreation

Shows incorrectly predicted (so far) - 3 - The Following, The Mindy Project, Mom

Current accuracy rate: 88%