Primetime Ratings, Wednesday, 5/21/14

 

 

FOX won Wednesday in all measures, albeit narrowly.

The season finale of 'American Idol' jumped up half a point to a 2.6. While that's a great week to week gain, it's also down a full point from the 3.6 earned by last year's climax. The 'Survivor' finale (which historically airs on Sunday) matched last week's 2.6, down a single tenth from the 2.7 put up by last spring's swan song. The reunion special dropped three tenths year to year, posting a 1.9.

The one-hour season finale of ABC's 'The Middle' failed to move the needle much, rising two tenths to a 2.1. However, the season finale of 'Modern Family' did manage to make an impression, rocketing up half a point to a 3.7. This wraps up another highly rated season for 'Modern,' which is second only to 'The Big Bang Theory' among broadcast comedies.

The series finale of 'Mixology' scored its usually middling 1.3. The second season of Canadian import crime drama 'Motive' got off to an underwhelming start, earning only a 0.9 premiere rating. That's down four tenths from the 1.3 last year's series debut drew.

Over on the Peacock, the series finale of 'Revolution' dipped a tenth to a 1.1, matching its previous series low. It's hard to think of another sophomore drama in recent memory that utterly collapsed as fast as 'Revolution' did. Season 1 averaged a healthy 2.6 demo rating, while Season 2 ended up with a 1.4 average. The drama's total audience also fell nearly 40% year to year.

The fifteenth season finale of 'Law & Order: SVU' matched last week's 1.6, coming up just short of the 1.7 earned by last season's capper. 'Chicago P.D.' finished up its inaugural season by rising a tenth to a 1.6 of its own. As for The CW, 'The 100' dipped a tenth to a 0.5.

Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions

8PM

FOX - American Idol (Season Finale) - 2.6 - 9 - 10.53

CBS - Survivor (Season Finale) - 2.6 - 8 - 9.58

ABC - The Middle (Season Finale) - 2.1 - 7 - 7.85

NBC - Revolution (Series Finale) - 1.1 - 4 - 4.13

CW - The 100 (R) - 0.2 - 1 - 0.75

9PM

ABC - Modern Family (Season Finale) - 3.7 - 11 - 10.45

NBC - Law & Order: SVU (Season Finale) - 1.6 - 5 - 6.39

CW - The 100 (N) - 0.5 - 1 - 1.46

9:30PM

ABC - Mixology (Series Finale) - 1.3 - 4 - 4.04

10PM

CBS - Survivor (Reunion Special) - 1.9 - 6 - 7.14

NBC - Chicago P.D. (Season Finale) - 1.6 - 5 - 6.27

ABC - Motive (Season Premiere) - 0.9 - 3 - 4.32

Source: Nielsen Media Research

PRIMETIME PROGNOSTICATION

The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:

1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)

2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)

3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)

4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)

5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)

The Middle - Renewed (Correctly Predicted) Season Finale: 5/21/14

Modern Family - Renewed (Correctly Predicted) Season Finale: 5/21/14

Mixology - Canceled (Correctly Predicted) Series Finale: 5/21/14

Motive - Too Soon to Tell

Scripted Programming Returns 7/9/14

The 100 - Renewed (Correctly Predicted) Season Finale: 6/11/14

Revolution - Canceled (Correctly Predicted) Series Finale: 5/21/14

Law & Order: SVU - Renewed (Correctly Predicted) Season Finale: 5/21/14

Chicago P.D. - Renewed (Correctly Predicted) Season Finale: 5/21/14

Final 2013-2014 Season Prediction Stats

ABC - Correct: 17, Incorrect: 2, Ineligible: 5

Renewals

Correct

Castle, The Goldbergs, Grey's Anatomy, Last Man Standing, Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
The Middle, Modern Family, Once Upon a Time, Resurrection, Revenge, Scandal

Incorrect

Nashville

Cancellations

Correct

Mind Games, Mixology, The Neighbors, OUaT in Wonderland, Super Fun Night, Trophy Wife

Incorrect

Suburgatory

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

The Assets, Back in the Game, Betrayal, Killer Women, Lucky 7

CBS - Correct: 18, Incorrect: 2, Ineligible: 2

Renewals

Correct

2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Blue Bloods, Criminal Minds, CSI, Elementary, The Good Wife
Hawaii Five-0, The Millers, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, Person of Interest, Two and a Half Men

Incorrect

The Mentalist, Mom

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

Unforgettable

Cancellations

Correct

Bad Teacher, The Crazy Ones, Friends with Better Lives, Hostages, Intelligence

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

We Are Men

CW - Correct: 5, Incorrect: 1, Ineligible: 5

Renewals

Correct

The 100, Hart of Dixie

Incorrect

Beauty and the Beast

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

Arrow, The Originals, Reign, Supernatural, The Vampire Diaries

Cancellations

Correct

The Carrie Diaries, Star-Crossed, The Tomorrow People

FOX - Correct: 8, Incorrect: 2, Ineligible: 7

Renewals

Correct

Brooklyn Nine-Nine, New Girl

Incorrect

The Following, The Mindy Project

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

Bob's Burgers, Bones, Family Guy, Glee, Sleepy Hollow, The Simpsons

Cancellations

Correct

Almost Human, Dads, Enlisted, Raising Hope, Rake, Surviving Jack

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

American Dad (Moving to TBS)

NBC - Correct: 11, Incorrect: 2, Ineligible: 5

Renewals

Correct

About a Boy, Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., Grimm, Hannibal
Law & Order: SVU, Parenthood, Parks and Recreation

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

The Blacklist

Cancellations

Correct

Believe, Crisis, Dracula, Revolution

Incorrect

Community, Growing Up Fisher

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

Ironside, The Michael J. Fox Show, Sean Saves the World, Welcome to the Family

Overall Stats - Correct: 60, Incorrect: 9, Ineligible: 24

Final Accuracy Rate: 87%