ABC and CBS split the Friday victory yet again.
'Last Man Standing' rose ever so slightly to a 1.3. 'The Neighbors' dropped back down to its old rating of 0.9. 'Shark Tank' matched last week's 2.1, easily winning the night in the coveted 18-49 demo. '20/20' ended ABC's line-up by matching last week's 1.8.
Over on the Eye, 'Undercover Boss' rose a tenth to a 1.4. The night of 1.4s continued for CBS, with both 'Hawaii Five-0' and 'Blue Bloods' matching the 1.4 each drew last week. 'Dateline' shot up three tenths for NBC, posting a 1.5. 'Grimm' remained in its usual range, bumping up a tenth to a 1.5.
Sadly, 'Hannibal's premiere momentum was stopped dead in its tracks, with the psychological horror drama plunging down three tenths to a 0.8. Normally, such a large drop would lead me to immediately downgrade 'Hannibal's prediction, but in this particular case, I've decided to wait and see what happens next week. 'Hannibal' is entirely produced overseas, and NBC pays next to nothing to license the show for broadcast. If the show got renewed while drawing 0.7s last year, there is no reason to believe that it can't accomplish the same miracle again.
Finally, doomed FOX sitcoms 'Enlisted' and 'Raising Hope' continue to flounder their way toward the ax. 'Enlisted' rose to a 0.7, while 'Raising Hope' dropped to a 0.5. Since neither show has the production advantages that 'Hannibal' does, FOX will likely not even hesitate before canceling them.
(Note: I prepare the initial template for Friday reports on Saturday, after the fast national numbers are released, then publish them once the final numbers come out on Monday. Thus, I wrote the preceding paragraph prior to today's cancellation announcement for 'Raising Hope.')
Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions
NBC - Dateline - 1.5 - 5 - 7.43
CBS - Undercover Boss (N) - 1.4 - 5 - 7.39
ABC - Last Man Standing (N) - 1.3 - 5 - 6.38
FOX - Bones (R) - 0.7 - 3 - 3.28
CW - Whose Line is it Anyway? (R) - 0.5 - 2 - 1.35
ABC - The Neighbors (N) - 0.9 - 3 - 3.60
CW - Whose Line is it Anyway? (R) - 0.5 - 2 - 1.31
ABC - Shark Tank (N) - 2.1 - 7 - 7.69
NBC - Grimm (N) - 1.5 - 5 - 5.65
CBS - Hawaii Five-0 (N) - 1.4 - 5 - 10.35
FOX - Enlisted (N) - 0.7 - 2 - 1.84
CW - Star-Crossed (R) - 0.2 - 1 - 0.53
FOX - Raising Hope (N) - 0.5 - 2 - 1.56
ABC - 20/20 (N) - 1.8 - 6 - 7.75
CBS - Blue Bloods (N) - 1.4 - 5 - 11.87
NBC - Hannibal (N) - 0.8 - 3 - 2.64
Source: Nielsen Media Research
The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:
1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)
2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)
3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)
4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)
5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)
Note: Ratings expectations for shows airing on Friday night are generally lower.
Newly updated predictions are in bold.
Last Man Standing - Guaranteed Renewal
The Neighbors - Guaranteed Cancellation
Hawaii Five-0 - Guaranteed Renewal
Blue Bloods - Guaranteed Renewal
Hart of Dixie - Likely Renewal
Enlisted - Guaranteed Cancellation
Raising Hope - Guaranteed Cancellation Canceled 3/10/14 *Correct Prediction
Grimm - Guaranteed Renewal
Hannibal - Too Soon to Tell