Primetime Ratings, Sunday, 4/20/14

CBS won Easter Sunday in all measures.

With no sports lead-in this week, '60 Minutes' fell half a point to a 1.1 to begin the Eye's night. 'The Amazing Race' followed that by dropping one tenth to a 1.7. 'The Good Wife' dipped two tenths to a 1.3. 'The Mentalist' also shed two tenths, earning a 1.4.

In disappointing news for 'Once Upon a Time' fans, the ABC drama took its second large tumble in as many weeks, falling three tenths to a 1.7. The Hallmark Hall of Fame telefilm 'In My Dreams' failed to make an impression with audiences, posting a meager 1.0.

'Bob's Burgers' fell two tenths to a new all-time low of 0.6, and is really, really lucky it got renewed early, due to being a favorite of FOX executives. It would be very hard to justify picking up a big four network show that draws CW numbers. 'Cosmos' rose for the first time ever, scoring a 1.4.

NBC's 'American Dream Builders' dropped to a new low of 0.5, and is way, way beyond certain to be canceled at this point. 'Dateline' matched last Sunday's 0.8. 'Believe' rose a tenth to a 1.1, but still has no real hope of renewal. That goes double for 'Crisis,' which set a new series low of 0.9.

Oh, one more thing. With us being less than a month out from the network upfronts, I'm going to be changing most of my "likely" renewals or cancellations to "guaranteed" ones soon. To that end, two NBC shows have been downgraded below.

Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions

7PM

CBS - 60 Minutes (N) - 1.1 - 4 - 8.88

ABC - It's the Easter Beagle, Charlie Brown/ Charlie Brown All-Stars (R) - 1.0 - 4 - 3.71

FOX - Bob's Burgers (N) - 0.6 - 3 - 1.52

NBC - American Dream Builders (N) - 0.5 - 2 - 2.31

7:30PM

FOX - American Dad (R) - 0.6 - 2 - 1.49

8PM

CBS - The Amazing Race (N) - 1.7 - 5 - 7.65

ABC - Once Upon a Time (N) - 1.7 - 5 - 5.95

FOX - The Simpsons (R) - 0.9 - 3 - 2.18

NBC - Dateline (N) - 0.8 - 3 - 3.70

8:30PM

FOX - Family Guy (R) - 1.2 - 4 - 2.69

9PM

FOX - Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey (N) - 1.4 - 4 - 3.74

CBS - The Good Wife (N) - 1.3 - 4 - 9.15

NBC - Believe (N) - 1.1 - 3 - 4.54

ABC - In My Dreams (Movie) - 1.0 - 3 - 4.79

10PM

CBS - The Mentalist (N) - 1.4 - 4 - 8.65

NBC - Crisis (N) - 0.9 - 3 - 3.73

Source: Nielsen Media Research

PRIMETIME PROGNOSTICATION

The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:

1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)

2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)

3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)

4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)

5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)

Newly updated predictions are in bold.

Once Upon a Time - Guaranteed Renewal

Resurrection - Guaranteed Renewal

Revenge - Guaranteed Renewal

The Good Wife - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

The Mentalist - Likely Cancellation

No Scripted Programming Available

The Simpsons - Already Renewed

Bob's Burgers - Already Renewed

Family Guy - Already Renewed

American Dad - Already Renewed (by TBS)

Believe - Guaranteed Cancellation

Crisis - Guaranteed Cancellation

Prediction Stats

Shows correctly predicted (so far) - 22
ABC - Mind Games, Once Upon a Time in Wonderland
CBS - 2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Blue Bloods, Criminal Minds, CSI, Elementary, The Good Wife, Hawaii Five-0, The Millers, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, Person of Interest, Two and a Half Men
FOX - Brooklyn Nine-Nine, New Girl, Raising Hope
NBC - Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., Grimm, Parks and Recreation

Shows incorrectly predicted (so far) - 3 - The Following, The Mindy Project, Mom

Current accuracy rate: 88%